Mercialys (France) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 9.59
| MERY Stock | EUR 10.49 0.42 3.85% |
Mercialys |
Mercialys Target Price Odds to finish below 9.59
The tendency of Mercialys Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 9.59 or more in 90 days |
| 10.49 | 90 days | 9.59 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Mercialys to drop to € 9.59 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Mercialys SA probability density function shows the probability of Mercialys Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Mercialys SA price to stay between € 9.59 and its current price of €10.49 at the end of the 90-day period is about 5.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Mercialys has a beta of 0.29. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Mercialys average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Mercialys SA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Mercialys SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Mercialys Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Mercialys
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Mercialys SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Mercialys Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Mercialys is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Mercialys' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Mercialys SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Mercialys within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.16 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.67 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.19 |
Mercialys Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Mercialys for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Mercialys SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Mercialys SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mercialys SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Mercialys SA has accumulated 1.25 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 195.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Mercialys SA has a current ratio of 0.52, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Mercialys until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mercialys' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mercialys SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mercialys to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mercialys' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Mercialys Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Mercialys Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Mercialys' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Mercialys' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 93.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 216.1 M |
Mercialys Technical Analysis
Mercialys' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Mercialys Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Mercialys SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Mercialys Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Mercialys Predictive Forecast Models
Mercialys' time-series forecasting models is one of many Mercialys' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Mercialys' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Mercialys SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Mercialys for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Mercialys SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Mercialys SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Mercialys SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| Mercialys SA has accumulated 1.25 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 195.2, indicating the company may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations. Mercialys SA has a current ratio of 0.52, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Mercialys until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Mercialys' shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Mercialys SA sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Mercialys to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Mercialys' use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. |
Other Information on Investing in Mercialys Stock
Mercialys financial ratios help investors to determine whether Mercialys Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Mercialys with respect to the benefits of owning Mercialys security.