Merck KGaA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 144.37
| MRK Stock | 141.60 0.65 0.46% |
Merck |
Merck KGaA Target Price Odds to finish below 144.37
The tendency of Merck Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under 144.37 after 90 days |
| 141.60 | 90 days | 144.37 | about 10.85 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Merck KGaA to stay under 144.37 after 90 days from now is about 10.85 (This Merck KGaA probability density function shows the probability of Merck Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Merck KGaA price to stay between its current price of 141.60 and 144.37 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.44 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Merck KGaA has a beta of 0.14. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Merck KGaA average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Merck KGaA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Merck KGaA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Merck KGaA Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Merck KGaA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Merck KGaA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Merck KGaA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Merck KGaA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Merck KGaA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Merck KGaA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Merck KGaA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Merck KGaA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.34 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.14 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 9.75 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.28 |
Merck KGaA Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Merck KGaA for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Merck KGaA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Merck KGaA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Merck KGaA Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Merck Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Merck KGaA's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Merck KGaA's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 434.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.6 B |
Merck KGaA Technical Analysis
Merck KGaA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Merck Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Merck KGaA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Merck Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Merck KGaA Predictive Forecast Models
Merck KGaA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Merck KGaA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Merck KGaA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Merck KGaA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Merck KGaA for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Merck KGaA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Merck KGaA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 60.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Merck Stock Analysis
When running Merck KGaA's price analysis, check to measure Merck KGaA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Merck KGaA is operating at the current time. Most of Merck KGaA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Merck KGaA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Merck KGaA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Merck KGaA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.