Morningstar Municipal Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Over 10.18
| MSTPX Fund | USD 10.06 0.03 0.30% |
Morningstar |
Morningstar Municipal Target Price Odds to finish over 10.18
The tendency of Morningstar Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 10.18 or more in 90 days |
| 10.06 | 90 days | 10.18 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Morningstar Municipal to move over $ 10.18 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Morningstar Municipal Bond probability density function shows the probability of Morningstar Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Morningstar Municipal price to stay between its current price of $ 10.06 and $ 10.18 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.79 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Morningstar Municipal Bond has a beta of -0.0554. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Morningstar Municipal are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Morningstar Municipal Bond is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Morningstar Municipal Bond has an alpha of 0.0089, implying that it can generate a 0.008857 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Morningstar Municipal Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Morningstar Municipal
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Morningstar Municipal. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Morningstar Municipal Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Morningstar Municipal is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Morningstar Municipal's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Morningstar Municipal Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Morningstar Municipal within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.6 |
Morningstar Municipal Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Morningstar Municipal for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Morningstar Municipal can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund maintains about 5.74% of its assets in cash |
Morningstar Municipal Technical Analysis
Morningstar Municipal's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Morningstar Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Morningstar Municipal Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Morningstar Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Morningstar Municipal Predictive Forecast Models
Morningstar Municipal's time-series forecasting models is one of many Morningstar Municipal's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Morningstar Municipal's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Morningstar Municipal
Checking the ongoing alerts about Morningstar Municipal for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Morningstar Municipal help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund maintains about 5.74% of its assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Morningstar Mutual Fund
Morningstar Municipal financial ratios help investors to determine whether Morningstar Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Morningstar with respect to the benefits of owning Morningstar Municipal security.
| Options Analysis Analyze and evaluate options and option chains as a potential hedge for your portfolios | |
| Idea Analyzer Analyze all characteristics, volatility and risk-adjusted return of Macroaxis ideas | |
| ETFs Find actively traded Exchange Traded Funds (ETF) from around the world | |
| Funds Screener Find actively-traded funds from around the world traded on over 30 global exchanges |