Natural Gas Commodity Probability of Future Commodity Price Finishing Over 8.38
| NGUSD Commodity | 3.40 0.27 8.63% |
Natural |
Natural Gas Target Price Odds to finish over 8.38
The tendency of Natural Commodity price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 8.38 or more in 90 days |
| 3.40 | 90 days | 8.38 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Natural Gas to move over 8.38 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Natural Gas probability density function shows the probability of Natural Commodity to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Natural Gas price to stay between its current price of 3.40 and 8.38 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Natural Gas has a beta of -0.2. This indicates as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Natural Gas are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Natural Gas is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Natural Gas has an alpha of 0.7902, implying that it can generate a 0.79 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Natural Gas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Natural Gas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Natural Gas. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the commodity market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the commodity market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Natural Gas' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Natural Gas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Natural Gas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Natural Gas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Natural Gas, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Natural Gas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.79 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.2 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.33 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.13 |
Natural Gas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Natural Gas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Natural Gas can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Natural Gas appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |
Natural Gas Technical Analysis
Natural Gas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Natural Commodity technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Natural Gas. In general, you should focus on analyzing Natural Commodity price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Natural Gas Predictive Forecast Models
Natural Gas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Natural Gas' commodity analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Natural Gas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the commodity market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Natural Gas
Checking the ongoing alerts about Natural Gas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Natural Gas help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Natural Gas appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues |