NATIONAL MICROFINANCE (Tanzania) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 5350.0
| NMB Stock | 5,350 0.00 0.00% |
NATIONAL |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Target Price Odds to finish below 5350.0
The tendency of NATIONAL Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 5,350 | 90 days | 5,350 | about 53.31 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 53.31 (This NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK probability density function shows the probability of NATIONAL Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon NATIONAL MICROFINANCE has a beta of 0.0127. This indicates as returns on the market go up, NATIONAL MICROFINANCE average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as NATIONAL MICROFINANCE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. NATIONAL MICROFINANCE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 47.34 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.44 |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| NATIONAL MICROFINANCE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Technical Analysis
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. NATIONAL Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of NATIONAL MICROFINANCE BANK. In general, you should focus on analyzing NATIONAL Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE Predictive Forecast Models
NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's time-series forecasting models is one of many NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary NATIONAL MICROFINANCE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about NATIONAL MICROFINANCE
Checking the ongoing alerts about NATIONAL MICROFINANCE for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for NATIONAL MICROFINANCE help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| NATIONAL MICROFINANCE generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |