Niagara Mohawk Power Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 56.2
| NMKBP Stock | 61.00 4.60 7.01% |
Niagara |
Niagara Mohawk Target Price Odds to finish over 56.2
The tendency of Niagara Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above 56.20 in 90 days |
| 61.00 | 90 days | 56.20 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Niagara Mohawk to stay above 56.20 in 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Niagara Mohawk Power probability density function shows the probability of Niagara Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Niagara Mohawk Power price to stay between 56.20 and its current price of 61.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.12 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Niagara Mohawk has a beta of 0.27. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Niagara Mohawk average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Niagara Mohawk Power will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Niagara Mohawk Power has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Niagara Mohawk Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Niagara Mohawk
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Niagara Mohawk Power. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Niagara Mohawk Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Niagara Mohawk is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Niagara Mohawk's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Niagara Mohawk Power, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Niagara Mohawk within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.27 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Niagara Mohawk Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Niagara Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Niagara Mohawk's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Niagara Mohawk's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Dividend Yield | 0.06 |
Niagara Mohawk Technical Analysis
Niagara Mohawk's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Niagara Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Niagara Mohawk Power. In general, you should focus on analyzing Niagara Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Niagara Mohawk Predictive Forecast Models
Niagara Mohawk's time-series forecasting models is one of many Niagara Mohawk's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Niagara Mohawk's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Niagara Mohawk in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Niagara Mohawk's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Niagara Mohawk options trading.
Additional Tools for Niagara Stock Analysis
When running Niagara Mohawk's price analysis, check to measure Niagara Mohawk's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Niagara Mohawk is operating at the current time. Most of Niagara Mohawk's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Niagara Mohawk's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Niagara Mohawk's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Niagara Mohawk to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.