Fiscalnote Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.1548
| NOTE Stock | USD 0.92 0.05 6.18% |
FiscalNote |
FiscalNote Holdings Target Price Odds to finish over 1.1548
The tendency of FiscalNote Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 1.15 or more in 90 days |
| 0.92 | 90 days | 1.15 | about 43.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of FiscalNote Holdings to move over $ 1.15 or more in 90 days from now is about 43.0 (This FiscalNote Holdings probability density function shows the probability of FiscalNote Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of FiscalNote Holdings price to stay between its current price of $ 0.92 and $ 1.15 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.03 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.86 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, FiscalNote Holdings will likely underperform. Additionally FiscalNote Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. FiscalNote Holdings Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for FiscalNote Holdings
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as FiscalNote Holdings. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of FiscalNote Holdings' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
FiscalNote Holdings Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. FiscalNote Holdings is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the FiscalNote Holdings' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold FiscalNote Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of FiscalNote Holdings within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.73 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.86 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.17 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.17 |
FiscalNote Holdings Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of FiscalNote Holdings for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for FiscalNote Holdings can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| FiscalNote Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| FiscalNote Holdings currently holds 251.64 M in liabilities. FiscalNote Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about FiscalNote Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 132.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (115.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 81.83 M. | |
| FiscalNote Holdings currently holds about 27.16 M in cash with (35.49 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.73, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 938 shares by Resnik Josh of FiscalNote Holdings at 1.3881 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
FiscalNote Holdings Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of FiscalNote Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential FiscalNote Holdings' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. FiscalNote Holdings' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 131.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 23.6 M |
FiscalNote Holdings Technical Analysis
FiscalNote Holdings' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. FiscalNote Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of FiscalNote Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing FiscalNote Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
FiscalNote Holdings Predictive Forecast Models
FiscalNote Holdings' time-series forecasting models is one of many FiscalNote Holdings' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary FiscalNote Holdings' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about FiscalNote Holdings
Checking the ongoing alerts about FiscalNote Holdings for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for FiscalNote Holdings help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| FiscalNote Holdings generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has a very high chance of going through financial distress in the upcoming years | |
| FiscalNote Holdings currently holds 251.64 M in liabilities. FiscalNote Holdings has a current ratio of 0.62, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations when due. Note, when we think about FiscalNote Holdings' use of debt, we should always consider it together with its cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the previous year's revenue of 132.65 M. Net Loss for the year was (115.46 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 81.83 M. | |
| FiscalNote Holdings currently holds about 27.16 M in cash with (35.49 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 1.73, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| FiscalNote Holdings has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 13.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 938 shares by Resnik Josh of FiscalNote Holdings at 1.3881 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out FiscalNote Holdings Backtesting, FiscalNote Holdings Valuation, FiscalNote Holdings Correlation, FiscalNote Holdings Hype Analysis, FiscalNote Holdings Volatility, FiscalNote Holdings History as well as FiscalNote Holdings Performance. For information on how to trade FiscalNote Stock refer to our How to Trade FiscalNote Stock guide.You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.
Is Application Software space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of FiscalNote Holdings. If investors know FiscalNote will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about FiscalNote Holdings listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.22) | Revenue Per Share 0.935 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.13) | Return On Assets (0.07) | Return On Equity (0.31) |
The market value of FiscalNote Holdings is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of FiscalNote that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of FiscalNote Holdings' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is FiscalNote Holdings' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because FiscalNote Holdings' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect FiscalNote Holdings' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between FiscalNote Holdings' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if FiscalNote Holdings is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, FiscalNote Holdings' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.