Oriental Culture Holding Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1.08
| OCG Stock | USD 1.28 0.16 11.11% |
Oriental |
Oriental Culture Target Price Odds to finish below 1.08
The tendency of Oriental Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1.08 or more in 90 days |
| 1.28 | 90 days | 1.08 | about 12.36 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Oriental Culture to drop to $ 1.08 or more in 90 days from now is about 12.36 (This Oriental Culture Holding probability density function shows the probability of Oriental Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Oriental Culture Holding price to stay between $ 1.08 and its current price of $1.28 at the end of the 90-day period is about 52.54 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Oriental Culture has a beta of 0.89. This indicates Oriental Culture Holding market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Oriental Culture is expected to follow. Additionally Oriental Culture Holding has an alpha of 0.3095, implying that it can generate a 0.31 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Oriental Culture Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Oriental Culture
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Oriental Culture Holding. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Oriental Culture's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Oriental Culture Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Oriental Culture is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Oriental Culture's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Oriental Culture Holding, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Oriental Culture within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.31 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.89 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.04 |
Oriental Culture Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Oriental Culture for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Oriental Culture Holding can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Oriental Culture had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Oriental Culture may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Oriental Culture has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.58 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (3.6 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.82 M. | |
| About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Oriental Culture Holding LTD Announces First Half Year of 2024 Unaudited Financial Results |
Oriental Culture Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Oriental Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Oriental Culture's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Oriental Culture's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 4.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 20.9 M |
Oriental Culture Technical Analysis
Oriental Culture's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Oriental Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Oriental Culture Holding. In general, you should focus on analyzing Oriental Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Oriental Culture Predictive Forecast Models
Oriental Culture's time-series forecasting models is one of many Oriental Culture's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Oriental Culture's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Oriental Culture Holding
Checking the ongoing alerts about Oriental Culture for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Oriental Culture Holding help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Oriental Culture had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Oriental Culture may become a speculative penny stock | |
| Oriental Culture has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 1.58 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (3.6 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 16.82 M. | |
| About 25.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from globenewswire.com: Oriental Culture Holding LTD Announces First Half Year of 2024 Unaudited Financial Results |
Check out Oriental Culture Backtesting, Oriental Culture Valuation, Oriental Culture Correlation, Oriental Culture Hype Analysis, Oriental Culture Volatility, Oriental Culture History as well as Oriental Culture Performance. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Is Interactive Media & Services space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Oriental Culture. If investors know Oriental will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Oriental Culture listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.46) | Earnings Share (0.62) | Revenue Per Share 0.37 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.019 | Return On Assets (0.05) |
The market value of Oriental Culture Holding is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Oriental that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Oriental Culture's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Oriental Culture's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Oriental Culture's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Oriental Culture's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Oriental Culture's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Oriental Culture is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Oriental Culture's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.