Origin Energy (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.24
| ORL Stock | EUR 6.50 0.15 2.26% |
Origin |
Origin Energy Target Price Odds to finish over 6.24
The tendency of Origin Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above € 6.24 in 90 days |
| 6.50 | 90 days | 6.24 | about 9.34 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Origin Energy to stay above € 6.24 in 90 days from now is about 9.34 (This Origin Energy Limited probability density function shows the probability of Origin Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Origin Energy Limited price to stay between € 6.24 and its current price of €6.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 8.43 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Origin Energy has a beta of 0.24. This indicates as returns on the market go up, Origin Energy average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Origin Energy Limited will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Origin Energy Limited has an alpha of 0.1908, implying that it can generate a 0.19 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Origin Energy Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Origin Energy
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Origin Energy Limited. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Origin Energy Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Origin Energy is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Origin Energy's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Origin Energy Limited, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Origin Energy within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.19 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.25 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.08 |
Origin Energy Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Origin Energy for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Origin Energy Limited can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has €2.6 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company reported the revenue of 14.38 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.43 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.15 B. |
Origin Energy Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Origin Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Origin Energy's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Origin Energy's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 1.7 B |
Origin Energy Technical Analysis
Origin Energy's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Origin Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Origin Energy Limited. In general, you should focus on analyzing Origin Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Origin Energy Predictive Forecast Models
Origin Energy's time-series forecasting models is one of many Origin Energy's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Origin Energy's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Origin Energy Limited
Checking the ongoing alerts about Origin Energy for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Origin Energy Limited help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has €2.6 Billion in debt which may indicate that it relies heavily on debt financing | |
| The company reported the revenue of 14.38 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.43 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.15 B. |
Other Information on Investing in Origin Stock
Origin Energy financial ratios help investors to determine whether Origin Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Origin with respect to the benefits of owning Origin Energy security.