Origin Energy Valuation

ORL Stock  EUR 6.55  0.10  1.50%   
At this time, the company appears to be overvalued. Origin Energy Limited holds a recent Real Value of €5.45 per share. The prevailing price of the company is €6.55. Our model determines the value of Origin Energy Limited from analyzing the company fundamentals such as Shares Outstanding of 1.72 B, operating margin of (0.04) %, and Return On Equity of -0.0955 as well as examining its technical indicators and probability of bankruptcy.
Overvalued
Today
6.55
Please note that Origin Energy's price fluctuation is somewhat reliable at this time. Calculation of the real value of Origin Energy Limited is based on 3 months time horizon. Increasing Origin Energy's time horizon generally increases the accuracy of value calculation and significantly improves the predictive power of the methodology used.
The fair value of the Origin stock is determined by what a typical buyer is willing to pay for full or partial control of Origin Energy Limited. Since Origin Energy is currently traded on the exchange, buyers and sellers on that exchange determine the market value of Origin Stock. However, Origin Energy's intrinsic value may or may not be the same as its current market price, in which case there is an opportunity to profit from the mispricing, assuming the market price will eventually merge with its intrinsic value.
Historical Market  6.55 Real  5.45 Hype  6.55 Naive  6.43
The real value of Origin Stock, also known as its intrinsic value, is the underlying worth of Origin Energy Limited Company, which is reflected in its stock price. It is based on Origin Energy's financial performance, growth prospects, management team, or industry conditions. The intrinsic value of Origin Energy's stock can be calculated using various methods such as discounted cash flow analysis, price-to-earnings ratio, or price-to-book ratio. That value may differ from its current market price, which is determined by supply and demand factors such as investor sentiment, market trends, or news.
5.45
Real Value
6.82
Upside
Estimating the potential upside or downside of Origin Energy Limited helps investors to forecast how Origin stock's addition to their portfolios will impact the overall performance. We also use other valuation drivers to help us estimate the true value of Origin Energy more accurately as focusing exclusively on Origin Energy's fundamentals will not take into account other important factors:
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
6.326.506.68
Details
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
5.186.557.92
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNext ValueHigh
5.076.437.80
Details

Origin Energy Total Value Analysis

Origin Energy Limited is now estimated to have takeover price of 9.89 B with market capitalization of 8.94 B, debt of 2.6 B, and cash on hands of 433.86 M. Please note that takeover price may be misleading and is a subject to mistakes in financial statements. We encourage investors to thoroughly investigate all of the Origin Energy fundamentals before making investing decisions based on enterprise value of the company
  Takeover PriceMarket CapDebt ObligationsCash
9.89 B
8.94 B
2.6 B
433.86 M

Origin Energy Investor Information

About 37.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors. The company has price-to-book ratio of 1.34. Typically companies with comparable Price to Book (P/B) are able to outperform the market in the long run. Origin Energy Limited recorded a loss per share of 0.54. The entity last dividend was issued on the 28th of February 2023. Based on the key measurements obtained from Origin Energy's financial statements, Origin Energy Limited is not in a good financial situation at the moment. It has a very high risk of going through financial straits in December.

Origin Energy Asset Utilization

The asset utilization indicator refers to the revenue earned for every dollar of assets a company currently reports. Origin Energy has an asset utilization ratio of 59.88 percent. This implies that the Company is making €0.6 for each dollar of assets. An increasing asset utilization means that Origin Energy Limited is more efficient with each dollar of assets it utilizes for everyday operations.

Origin Energy Ownership Allocation

Origin Energy owns a total of 1.72 Billion outstanding shares. 30% of Origin Energy Limited outstanding shares are owned by third-party entities. Institutional investors are typically referred to investors that purchase positions in a given stock to benefit from reduced commissions. Consequently, institutional investors are subject to different rules and regulations than regular investors. Please look out for any change in current institutional holding as this could mean something significant has changed at the company or is about to change. Please note that no matter how many assets the company maintains, if the real value of the company is less than the current market value, you may not be able to make money on it.

Origin Energy Profitability Analysis

The company reported the revenue of 14.38 B. Net Loss for the year was (1.43 B) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.15 B.
Please note that valuation analysis is one of the essential comprehensive assessments in business. It evaluates Origin Energy's worth, which you can determine by considering its current assets, liabilities and future cash flows. The investors' valuation analysis is an important metric that will give you a perspective on different companies. It helps you know the worth of the potential investment in Origin Energy and how it compares across the competition.

About Origin Energy Valuation

The stock valuation mechanism determines Origin Energy's current worth on a weekly basis. Our valuation model uses a comparative analysis of Origin Energy. We calculate exposure to Origin Energy's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, and relevant financial multiples and ratios and then compare them to those of Origin Energy's related companies.
Origin Energy Limited, an integrated energy company, engages in energy retailing, power generation, and natural gas production businesses in Australia, New Zealand, and internationally. Origin Energy Limited was founded in 2000 and is based in Barangaroo, Australia. ORIGIN ENERGY operates under Oil Gas Integrated classification in Germany and is traded on Frankfurt Stock Exchange. It employs 5360 people.

8 Steps to conduct Origin Energy's Valuation Analysis

Company's valuation is the process of determining the worth of any company in monetary terms. It estimates Origin Energy's potential worth based on factors such as financial performance, market conditions, growth prospects, and overall economic environment. The result of company valuation is a single number representing a Company's current market value. This value can be used as a benchmark for various financial transactions such as mergers and acquisitions, initial public offerings (IPOs), or private equity investments. To conduct Origin Energy's valuation analysis, follow these 8 steps:
  • Gather financial information: Obtain Origin Energy's financial statements, including balance sheets, income statements, and cash flow statements.
  • Determine Origin Energy's revenue streams: Identify Origin Energy's primary sources of revenue, including products or services offered, target markets, and pricing strategies.
  • Analyze market data: Research Origin Energy's industry and market trends, including the size of the market, growth rate, and competition.
  • Establish Origin Energy's growth potential: Evaluate Origin Energy's management, business model, and growth potential.
  • Determine Origin Energy's financial performance: Analyze its financial statements to assess its historical performance and future potential.
  • Choose a valuation method: Consider the Company's specific circumstances and choose an appropriate valuation method, such as the discounted cash flow (DCF) or comparable analysis method.
  • Calculate the value: Apply the chosen valuation method to the financial information and market data to calculate Origin Energy's estimated value.
  • Review and adjust: Review the results and make necessary adjustments, considering any relevant factors that may have been missed or overlooked.
Note: This is a general outline, and different approaches and methods may be used depending on the type and size of the company being valued. We also recomment to seek professional assistance to ensure accuracy.

Complementary Tools for Origin Stock analysis

When running Origin Energy's price analysis, check to measure Origin Energy's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Origin Energy is operating at the current time. Most of Origin Energy's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Origin Energy's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Origin Energy's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Origin Energy to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.
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