Ovid Therapeutics Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 1.05
| OVID Stock | USD 1.09 0.01 0.91% |
Ovid |
Ovid Therapeutics Target Price Odds to finish over 1.05
The tendency of Ovid Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 1.05 in 90 days |
| 1.09 | 90 days | 1.05 | more than 93.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ovid Therapeutics to stay above $ 1.05 in 90 days from now is more than 93.0 (This Ovid Therapeutics probability density function shows the probability of Ovid Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ovid Therapeutics price to stay between $ 1.05 and its current price of $1.09 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.27 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 2.46 . This indicates as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Ovid Therapeutics will likely underperform. Additionally Ovid Therapeutics has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ovid Therapeutics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ovid Therapeutics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ovid Therapeutics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ovid Therapeutics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ovid Therapeutics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ovid Therapeutics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ovid Therapeutics, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ovid Therapeutics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.37 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 2.46 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.07 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Ovid Therapeutics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ovid Therapeutics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ovid Therapeutics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ovid Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 391.69 K. Net Loss for the year was (52.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.5 M. | |
| Ovid Therapeutics currently holds about 152.37 M in cash with (45.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.16, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Biotechnology Value Fund L Ps Strategic Reduction in Ovid Therapeutics Inc |
Ovid Therapeutics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Ovid Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Ovid Therapeutics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Ovid Therapeutics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 70.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 105.8 M |
Ovid Therapeutics Technical Analysis
Ovid Therapeutics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ovid Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ovid Therapeutics. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ovid Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ovid Therapeutics Predictive Forecast Models
Ovid Therapeutics' time-series forecasting models is one of many Ovid Therapeutics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ovid Therapeutics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ovid Therapeutics
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ovid Therapeutics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ovid Therapeutics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ovid Therapeutics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 391.69 K. Net Loss for the year was (52.34 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.5 M. | |
| Ovid Therapeutics currently holds about 152.37 M in cash with (45.78 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 2.16, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Ovid Therapeutics has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Roughly 56.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Biotechnology Value Fund L Ps Strategic Reduction in Ovid Therapeutics Inc |
Check out Ovid Therapeutics Backtesting, Ovid Therapeutics Valuation, Ovid Therapeutics Correlation, Ovid Therapeutics Hype Analysis, Ovid Therapeutics Volatility, Ovid Therapeutics History as well as Ovid Therapeutics Performance. For information on how to trade Ovid Stock refer to our How to Trade Ovid Stock guide.You can also try the Transaction History module to view history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Ovid Therapeutics. If investors know Ovid will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Ovid Therapeutics listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (0.46) | Revenue Per Share 0.009 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.587 | Return On Assets (0.36) | Return On Equity (0.37) |
The market value of Ovid Therapeutics is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Ovid that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Ovid Therapeutics' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Ovid Therapeutics' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Ovid Therapeutics' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Ovid Therapeutics' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Ovid Therapeutics' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Ovid Therapeutics is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Ovid Therapeutics' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.