Provident Agro (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 396.82
| PALM Stock | IDR 400.00 2.00 0.50% |
Provident |
Provident Agro Target Price Odds to finish below 396.82
The tendency of Provident Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 396.82 or more in 90 days |
| 400.00 | 90 days | 396.82 | about 35.93 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Provident Agro to drop to 396.82 or more in 90 days from now is about 35.93 (This Provident Agro Tbk probability density function shows the probability of Provident Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Provident Agro Tbk price to stay between 396.82 and its current price of 400.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Provident Agro has a beta of 0.22 indicating as returns on the market go up, Provident Agro average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Provident Agro Tbk will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Provident Agro Tbk has an alpha of 0.0627, implying that it can generate a 0.0627 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Provident Agro Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Provident Agro
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Provident Agro Tbk. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Provident Agro Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Provident Agro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Provident Agro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Provident Agro Tbk, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Provident Agro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 16.64 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.02 |
Provident Agro Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Provident Agro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Provident Agro Tbk can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company has a current ratio of 0.61, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Provident Agro until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Provident Agro's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Provident Agro Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Provident to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Provident Agro's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Provident Agro Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Provident Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Provident Agro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Provident Agro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 7.1 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 461.4 B |
Provident Agro Technical Analysis
Provident Agro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Provident Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Provident Agro Tbk. In general, you should focus on analyzing Provident Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Provident Agro Predictive Forecast Models
Provident Agro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Provident Agro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Provident Agro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Provident Agro Tbk
Checking the ongoing alerts about Provident Agro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Provident Agro Tbk help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company has a current ratio of 0.61, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Provident Agro until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Provident Agro's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Provident Agro Tbk sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Provident to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Provident Agro's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Provident Stock
Provident Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Provident Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Provident with respect to the benefits of owning Provident Agro security.