Penn National Gaming Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 13.40
| PENN Stock | USD 21.91 0.40 1.86% |
Penn |
Penn National Target Price Odds to finish below 13.40
The tendency of Penn Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 13.40 or more in 90 days |
| 21.91 | 90 days | 13.40 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Penn National to drop to $ 13.40 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Penn National Gaming probability density function shows the probability of Penn Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Penn National Gaming price to stay between $ 13.40 and its current price of $21.91 at the end of the 90-day period is about 99.0 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.19 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Penn National will likely underperform. Additionally Penn National Gaming has an alpha of 0.1196, implying that it can generate a 0.12 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Penn National Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Penn National
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Penn National Gaming. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Penn National Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Penn National is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Penn National's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Penn National Gaming, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Penn National within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.19 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.11 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Penn National Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Penn National for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Penn National Gaming can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (490 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.02 B. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: PENN Entertainment Inc Shares Gap Down to 21.63 on Dec 3 |
Penn National Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Penn Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Penn National's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Penn National's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 152.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 1.1 B |
Penn National Technical Analysis
Penn National's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Penn Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Penn National Gaming. In general, you should focus on analyzing Penn Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Penn National Predictive Forecast Models
Penn National's time-series forecasting models is one of many Penn National's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Penn National's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Penn National Gaming
Checking the ongoing alerts about Penn National for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Penn National Gaming help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 6.36 B. Net Loss for the year was (490 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.02 B. | |
| Over 99.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: PENN Entertainment Inc Shares Gap Down to 21.63 on Dec 3 |
Check out Penn National Backtesting, Penn National Valuation, Penn National Correlation, Penn National Hype Analysis, Penn National Volatility, Penn National History as well as Penn National Performance. You can also try the Stocks Directory module to find actively traded stocks across global markets.
Is Hotels, Restaurants & Leisure space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Penn National. If investors know Penn will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Penn National listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 2.089 | Earnings Share (3.52) | Revenue Per Share 41.491 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.012 | Return On Assets (0.0008) |
The market value of Penn National Gaming is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Penn that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Penn National's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Penn National's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Penn National's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Penn National's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Penn National's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Penn National is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Penn National's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.