Patagonia Gold Corp Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 0.02
| PGDC Stock | CAD 0.04 0.01 12.50% |
Patagonia |
Patagonia Gold Target Price Odds to finish over 0.02
The tendency of Patagonia Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above C$ 0.02 in 90 days |
| 0.04 | 90 days | 0.02 | about 98.0 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Patagonia Gold to stay above C$ 0.02 in 90 days from now is about 98.0 (This Patagonia Gold Corp probability density function shows the probability of Patagonia Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Patagonia Gold Corp price to stay between C$ 0.02 and its current price of C$0.035 at the end of the 90-day period is about 57.36 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 3.2 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Patagonia Gold will likely underperform. Moreover Patagonia Gold Corp has an alpha of 1.4343, implying that it can generate a 1.43 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Patagonia Gold Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Patagonia Gold
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Patagonia Gold Corp. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Patagonia Gold's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Patagonia Gold Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Patagonia Gold is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Patagonia Gold's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Patagonia Gold Corp, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Patagonia Gold within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 1.43 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 3.20 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.01 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
Patagonia Gold Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Patagonia Gold for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Patagonia Gold Corp can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Patagonia Gold Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has accumulated 7.21 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.74, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Patagonia Gold Corp has a current ratio of 0.63, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Patagonia Gold until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Patagonia Gold's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Patagonia Gold Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Patagonia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Patagonia Gold's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 9.22 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.89 M. | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has accumulated about 280 K in cash with (591 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of Patagonia Gold outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Patagonia Gold Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Patagonia Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Patagonia Gold's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Patagonia Gold's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Short Percent Float | 0.0001 | |
| Shares Float | 163.1 M | |
| Short Percent | 0.0001 |
Patagonia Gold Technical Analysis
Patagonia Gold's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Patagonia Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Patagonia Gold Corp. In general, you should focus on analyzing Patagonia Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Patagonia Gold Predictive Forecast Models
Patagonia Gold's time-series forecasting models is one of many Patagonia Gold's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Patagonia Gold's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Patagonia Gold Corp
Checking the ongoing alerts about Patagonia Gold for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Patagonia Gold Corp help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Patagonia Gold Corp is way too risky over 90 days horizon | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has some characteristics of a very speculative penny stock | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp appears to be risky and price may revert if volatility continues | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has high likelihood to experience some financial distress in the next 2 years | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has accumulated 7.21 M in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 0.74, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Patagonia Gold Corp has a current ratio of 0.63, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Patagonia Gold until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Patagonia Gold's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Patagonia Gold Corp sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Patagonia to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Patagonia Gold's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| The entity reported the revenue of 9.22 M. Net Loss for the year was (4.22 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 3.89 M. | |
| Patagonia Gold Corp has accumulated about 280 K in cash with (591 K) of positive cash flow from operations. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of Patagonia Gold outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for Patagonia Stock Analysis
When running Patagonia Gold's price analysis, check to measure Patagonia Gold's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Patagonia Gold is operating at the current time. Most of Patagonia Gold's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Patagonia Gold's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Patagonia Gold's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Patagonia Gold to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.