Payden Absolute Return Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.30
| PYABX Fund | 9.46 0.08 0.84% |
Payden |
Payden Absolute Target Price Odds to finish below 9.30
The tendency of Payden Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 9.30 or more in 90 days |
| 9.46 | 90 days | 9.30 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Payden Absolute to drop to 9.30 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Payden Absolute Return probability density function shows the probability of Payden Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Payden Absolute Return price to stay between 9.30 and its current price of 9.46 at the end of the 90-day period is about 31.76 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Payden Absolute Return has a beta of -0.0176 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Payden Absolute are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Payden Absolute Return is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Payden Absolute Return has an alpha of 4.0E-4, implying that it can generate a 3.55E-4 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Payden Absolute Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Payden Absolute
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Payden Absolute Return. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Payden Absolute. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Payden Absolute's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Payden Absolute's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Payden Absolute Return.Payden Absolute Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Payden Absolute is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Payden Absolute's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Payden Absolute Return, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Payden Absolute within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.0004 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.04 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.02 |
Payden Absolute Technical Analysis
Payden Absolute's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Payden Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Payden Absolute Return. In general, you should focus on analyzing Payden Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Payden Absolute Predictive Forecast Models
Payden Absolute's time-series forecasting models is one of many Payden Absolute's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Payden Absolute's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Payden Absolute in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Payden Absolute's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Payden Absolute options trading.
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