Caltagirone SpA (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 6.51
| QCG Stock | 5.86 0.06 1.01% |
Caltagirone |
Caltagirone SpA Target Price Odds to finish over 6.51
The tendency of Caltagirone Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 6.51 or more in 90 days |
| 5.86 | 90 days | 6.51 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Caltagirone SpA to move over 6.51 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Caltagirone SpA probability density function shows the probability of Caltagirone Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Caltagirone SpA price to stay between its current price of 5.86 and 6.51 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.11 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Caltagirone SpA has a beta of -0.65 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Caltagirone SpA are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Caltagirone SpA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Caltagirone SpA has an alpha of 0.2498, implying that it can generate a 0.25 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Caltagirone SpA Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Caltagirone SpA
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Caltagirone SpA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Caltagirone SpA's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Caltagirone SpA Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Caltagirone SpA is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Caltagirone SpA's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Caltagirone SpA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Caltagirone SpA within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.25 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.65 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.22 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.03 |
Caltagirone SpA Technical Analysis
Caltagirone SpA's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Caltagirone Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Caltagirone SpA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Caltagirone Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Caltagirone SpA Predictive Forecast Models
Caltagirone SpA's time-series forecasting models is one of many Caltagirone SpA's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Caltagirone SpA's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Caltagirone SpA in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Caltagirone SpA's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Caltagirone SpA options trading.
Additional Tools for Caltagirone Stock Analysis
When running Caltagirone SpA's price analysis, check to measure Caltagirone SpA's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Caltagirone SpA is operating at the current time. Most of Caltagirone SpA's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Caltagirone SpA's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Caltagirone SpA's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Caltagirone SpA to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.