Cref Inflation Linked Bond Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 85.84
| QCILPX Stock | USD 86.32 0.01 0.01% |
CREF |
CREF Inflation Target Price Odds to finish below 85.84
The tendency of CREF Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 85.84 or more in 90 days |
| 86.32 | 90 days | 85.84 | about 90.84 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of CREF Inflation to drop to $ 85.84 or more in 90 days from now is about 90.84 (This CREF Inflation Linked Bond probability density function shows the probability of CREF Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of CREF Inflation Linked price to stay between $ 85.84 and its current price of $86.32 at the end of the 90-day period is about 6.94 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon CREF Inflation has a beta of 0.047 indicating as returns on the market go up, CREF Inflation average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding CREF Inflation Linked Bond will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally CREF Inflation Linked Bond has an alpha of 0.0167, implying that it can generate a 0.0167 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). CREF Inflation Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for CREF Inflation
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as CREF Inflation Linked. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.CREF Inflation Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. CREF Inflation is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the CREF Inflation's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold CREF Inflation Linked Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of CREF Inflation within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.02 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.22 |
CREF Inflation Technical Analysis
CREF Inflation's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. CREF Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of CREF Inflation Linked Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing CREF Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
CREF Inflation Predictive Forecast Models
CREF Inflation's time-series forecasting models is one of many CREF Inflation's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary CREF Inflation's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards CREF Inflation in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, CREF Inflation's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from CREF Inflation options trading.
Additional Tools for CREF Stock Analysis
When running CREF Inflation's price analysis, check to measure CREF Inflation's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy CREF Inflation is operating at the current time. Most of CREF Inflation's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of CREF Inflation's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move CREF Inflation's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of CREF Inflation to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.