Aesapar Fundo (Brazil) Probability of Future Fund Price Finishing Under 104.74
| RBED11 Fund | BRL 94.03 0.00 0.00% |
Aesapar |
Aesapar Fundo Target Price Odds to finish below 104.74
The tendency of Aesapar Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under R$ 104.74 after 90 days |
| 94.03 | 90 days | 104.74 | close to 99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Aesapar Fundo to stay under R$ 104.74 after 90 days from now is close to 99 (This Aesapar Fundo de probability density function shows the probability of Aesapar Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Aesapar Fundo de price to stay between its current price of R$ 94.03 and R$ 104.74 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.18 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Aesapar Fundo de has a beta of -0.26 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Aesapar Fundo are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Aesapar Fundo de is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Aesapar Fundo de has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Aesapar Fundo Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Aesapar Fundo
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Aesapar Fundo de. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Aesapar Fundo Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Aesapar Fundo is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Aesapar Fundo's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Aesapar Fundo de, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Aesapar Fundo within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.26 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.40 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Aesapar Fundo Technical Analysis
Aesapar Fundo's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Aesapar Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Aesapar Fundo de. In general, you should focus on analyzing Aesapar Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Aesapar Fundo Predictive Forecast Models
Aesapar Fundo's time-series forecasting models is one of many Aesapar Fundo's fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Aesapar Fundo's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Aesapar Fundo in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Aesapar Fundo's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Aesapar Fundo options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Aesapar Fund
Aesapar Fundo financial ratios help investors to determine whether Aesapar Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Aesapar with respect to the benefits of owning Aesapar Fundo security.
| Transaction History View history of all your transactions and understand their impact on performance | |
| Efficient Frontier Plot and analyze your portfolio and positions against risk-return landscape of the market. | |
| Price Ceiling Movement Calculate and plot Price Ceiling Movement for different equity instruments | |
| Commodity Channel Use Commodity Channel Index to analyze current equity momentum |