Replimune Group Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 11.53
| REPL Stock | USD 13.14 0.41 3.03% |
Replimune |
Replimune Target Price Odds to finish below 11.53
The tendency of Replimune Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 11.53 or more in 90 days |
| 13.14 | 90 days | 11.53 | about 46.33 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Replimune to drop to $ 11.53 or more in 90 days from now is about 46.33 (This Replimune Group probability density function shows the probability of Replimune Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Replimune Group price to stay between $ 11.53 and its current price of $13.14 at the end of the 90-day period is about 46.7 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.92 indicating as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, Replimune will likely underperform. Additionally Replimune Group has an alpha of 0.3211, implying that it can generate a 0.32 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Replimune Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Replimune
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Replimune Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Replimune Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Replimune is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Replimune's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Replimune Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Replimune within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.32 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.92 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.02 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.07 |
Replimune Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Replimune for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Replimune Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Replimune Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (215.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Replimune Group currently holds about 395.08 M in cash with (185.47 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.01. | |
| Replimune Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Replimune Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering |
Replimune Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Replimune Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Replimune's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Replimune's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 66.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 420.7 M |
Replimune Technical Analysis
Replimune's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Replimune Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Replimune Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Replimune Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Replimune Predictive Forecast Models
Replimune's time-series forecasting models is one of many Replimune's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Replimune's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Replimune Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Replimune for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Replimune Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Replimune Group had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| Net Loss for the year was (215.79 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 0. | |
| Replimune Group currently holds about 395.08 M in cash with (185.47 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 8.01. | |
| Replimune Group has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 92.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Replimune Announces Pricing of Upsized Public Offering |
Check out Replimune Backtesting, Replimune Valuation, Replimune Correlation, Replimune Hype Analysis, Replimune Volatility, Replimune History as well as Replimune Performance. You can also try the Earnings Calls module to check upcoming earnings announcements updated hourly across public exchanges.
Is Biotechnology space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Replimune. If investors know Replimune will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Replimune listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Earnings Share (3.04) | Return On Assets (0.27) | Return On Equity (0.50) |
The market value of Replimune Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Replimune that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Replimune's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Replimune's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Replimune's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Replimune's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Replimune's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Replimune is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Replimune's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.