Basic Materials Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 60.78
| RYBCX Fund | USD 67.52 0.86 1.29% |
Basic |
Basic Materials Target Price Odds to finish below 60.78
The tendency of Basic Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 60.78 or more in 90 days |
| 67.52 | 90 days | 60.78 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Basic Materials to drop to $ 60.78 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Basic Materials Fund probability density function shows the probability of Basic Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Basic Materials price to stay between $ 60.78 and its current price of $67.52 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.75 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Basic Materials Fund has a beta of -0.0374 indicating as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Basic Materials are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Basic Materials Fund is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Basic Materials Fund has an alpha of 0.0396, implying that it can generate a 0.0396 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Basic Materials Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Basic Materials
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Basic Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Basic Materials' price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Basic Materials Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Basic Materials is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Basic Materials' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Basic Materials Fund, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Basic Materials within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.84 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Basic Materials Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Basic Materials for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Basic Materials can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.Basic Materials Technical Analysis
Basic Materials' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Basic Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Basic Materials Fund. In general, you should focus on analyzing Basic Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Basic Materials Predictive Forecast Models
Basic Materials' time-series forecasting models is one of many Basic Materials' mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Basic Materials' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Basic Materials
Checking the ongoing alerts about Basic Materials for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Basic Materials help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Other Information on Investing in Basic Mutual Fund
Basic Materials financial ratios help investors to determine whether Basic Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Basic with respect to the benefits of owning Basic Materials security.
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Commodity Directory Find actively traded commodities issued by global exchanges | |
| Performance Analysis Check effects of mean-variance optimization against your current asset allocation | |
| Companies Directory Evaluate performance of over 100,000 Stocks, Funds, and ETFs against different fundamentals |