Basic Materials Mutual Fund Forecast - Naive Prediction

A naive forecasting model for Basic Materials is a special case of the moving average forecasting where the number of periods used for smoothing is one. Therefore, the forecast of Basic Materials Fund value for a given trading day is simply the observed value for the previous period. Due to the simplistic nature of the naive forecasting model, it can only be used to forecast up to one period.

Basic Materials Naive Prediction Price Forecast For the 23rd of November

Given 90 days horizon, the Naive Prediction forecasted value of Basic Materials Fund on the next trading day is expected to be 66.19 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.73, mean absolute percentage error of 0.78, and the sum of the absolute errors of 44.66.

Basic Materials Mutual Fund Forecast Pattern

Backtest Basic Materials

Basic Materials Price Prediction

Buy or Sell Advice

Basic Materials Forecasted Value

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Naive Prediction forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Basic Materials mutual fund data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Basic Materials mutual fund, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality. This model is not at all useful as a medium-long range forecasting tool of Basic Materials Fund. This model is simplistic and is included partly for completeness and partly because of its simplicity. It is unlikely that you'll want to use this model directly to predict Basic Materials. Instead, consider using either the moving average model or the more general weighted moving average model with a higher (i.e., greater than 1) number of periods, and possibly a different set of weights.

Predictive Modules for Basic Materials

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Basic Materials. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.

Hype Prediction Low Estimated High 66.53 67.52 68.51 Details

Intrinsic Valuation Low Real High 61.46 62.45 74.27 Details

Bollinger Band Projection (param) Low Middle High 65.42 67.44 69.46 Details

Other Forecasting Options for Basic Materials

For every potential investor in Basic, whether a beginner or expert, Basic Materials' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Basic Mutual Fund price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Basic. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Basic Materials' price trends.

Basic Materials Related Equities

Risk & Return

Correlation

Basic Materials Technical and Predictive Analytics

The mutual fund market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of Basic Materials' price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of Basic Materials' current price.

Basic Materials Market Strength Events

Basic Materials Risk Indicators

Also Currently Popular

Analyzing currently trending equities could be an opportunity to develop a better portfolio based on different market momentums that they can trigger. Utilizing the top trending stocks is also useful when creating a market-neutral strategy or pair trading technique involving a short or a long position in a currently trending equity.

Other Information on Investing in Basic Mutual Fund