Smith Douglas Homes Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 41.43
| SDHC Stock | 33.59 2.07 6.57% |
Smith |
Smith Douglas Target Price Odds to finish over 41.43
The tendency of Smith Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 41.43 or more in 90 days |
| 33.59 | 90 days | 41.43 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smith Douglas to move over 41.43 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Smith Douglas Homes probability density function shows the probability of Smith Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Smith Douglas Homes price to stay between its current price of 33.59 and 41.43 at the end of the 90-day period is about 77.11 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Smith Douglas has a beta of 0.98. This usually implies Smith Douglas Homes market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Smith Douglas is expected to follow. Additionally Smith Douglas Homes has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Smith Douglas Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Smith Douglas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Douglas Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smith Douglas Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smith Douglas is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smith Douglas' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smith Douglas Homes, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smith Douglas within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.18 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.98 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.21 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Smith Douglas Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smith Douglas for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smith Douglas Homes can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Smith Douglas Homes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smith Douglas Homes has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Smith Douglas Homes Corp Stock Price Up 3.44 percent on Nov 22 |
Smith Douglas Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Smith Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Smith Douglas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Douglas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 51.3 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 19.8 M |
Smith Douglas Technical Analysis
Smith Douglas' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smith Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smith Douglas Homes. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smith Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Smith Douglas Predictive Forecast Models
Smith Douglas' time-series forecasting models is one of many Smith Douglas' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smith Douglas' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Smith Douglas Homes
Checking the ongoing alerts about Smith Douglas for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smith Douglas Homes help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Smith Douglas Homes generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Smith Douglas Homes has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Smith Douglas Homes Corp Stock Price Up 3.44 percent on Nov 22 |
Check out Smith Douglas Backtesting, Smith Douglas Valuation, Smith Douglas Correlation, Smith Douglas Hype Analysis, Smith Douglas Volatility, Smith Douglas History as well as Smith Douglas Performance. You can also try the Pattern Recognition module to use different Pattern Recognition models to time the market across multiple global exchanges.
Is Household Durables space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Douglas. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Smith Douglas listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.28) | Revenue Per Share 6.7 K | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.03) | Return On Equity 0.6993 |
The market value of Smith Douglas Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Douglas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Douglas' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Smith Douglas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Douglas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Douglas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Douglas is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Smith Douglas' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.