Smith Douglas Stock Forward View - Triple Exponential Smoothing
| SDHC Stock | 18.17 0.33 1.78% |
Smith Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon. Investors can use this forecasting interface to forecast Smith Douglas stock prices and determine the direction of Smith Douglas Homes's future trends based on various well-known forecasting models. We suggest always using this module together with an analysis of Smith Douglas' historical fundamentals, such as revenue growth or operating cash flow patterns.
At the present time the relative strength index (rsi) of Smith Douglas' share price is below 20 . This usually implies that the stock is significantly oversold. The fundamental principle of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to quantify the velocity at which market participants are driving the price of a financial instrument upwards or downwards. Momentum 0
Sell Peaked
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 0.2182 | EPS Estimate Current Year 0.9014 | EPS Estimate Next Year 0.6257 | Wall Street Target Price 16.5 |
Using Smith Douglas hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Smith Douglas Homes from the perspective of Smith Douglas response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Douglas Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 18.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54 and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.04. Smith Douglas after-hype prediction price | USD 18.75 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Douglas to cross-verify your projections. Smith Douglas Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Smith price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Smith using various technical indicators. When you analyze Smith charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
Smith Douglas Triple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 6th of February
Given 90 days horizon, the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of Smith Douglas Homes on the next trading day is expected to be 18.22 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.54, mean absolute percentage error of 0.53, and the sum of the absolute errors of 32.04.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict Smith Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not suggest using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that Smith Douglas' next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
Smith Douglas Stock Forecast Pattern
| Backtest Smith Douglas | Smith Douglas Price Prediction | Research Analysis |
Smith Douglas Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting Smith Douglas' Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. Smith Douglas' downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 14.42 and 22.02, respectively. We have considered Smith Douglas' daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Triple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of Smith Douglas stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent Smith Douglas stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | Huge |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0366 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.5431 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0283 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 32.04 |
Predictive Modules for Smith Douglas
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smith Douglas Homes. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Smith Douglas After-Hype Price Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Smith Douglas at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Smith Douglas or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Smith Douglas, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Smith Douglas Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Smith Douglas' stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Smith Douglas' historical news coverage. Smith Douglas' after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 14.95 and 22.55, respectively. We have considered Smith Douglas' daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models compare with traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Smith Douglas is not too volatile at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Smith Douglas Homes is based on 3 months time horizon.
Smith Douglas Stock Price Outlook Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Smith Douglas is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Smith Douglas backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Smith Douglas, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.18 | 3.80 | 0.25 | 0.03 | 8 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 8 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | |
18.17 | 18.75 | 1.35 |
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Smith Douglas Hype Timeline
Smith Douglas Homes is at this time traded for 18.17. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.25, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.03. Smith is forecasted to increase in value after the next headline, with the price projected to jump to 18.75 or above. The average volatility of media hype impact on the company the price is over 100%. The price growth on the next news is projected to be 1.35%, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.18%. The volatility of related hype on Smith Douglas is about 2303.03%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 18.20. The company reported the previous year's revenue of 975.46 M. Net Income was 111.83 M with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 233.84 M. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next forecasted press release will be in about 8 days. Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Douglas to cross-verify your projections.Smith Douglas Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Smith Douglas' direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Smith Douglas' future price movements. Getting to know how Smith Douglas' peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Smith Douglas may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| HOV | Hovnanian Enterprises | 0.79 | 8 per month | 4.77 | 0.01 | 7.93 | (5.13) | 34.59 | |
| LEGH | Legacy Housing Corp | (0.01) | 6 per month | 1.97 | (0.03) | 2.95 | (2.82) | 10.51 | |
| CARS | Cars Inc | (0.16) | 10 per month | 1.95 | 0.02 | 3.99 | (3.44) | 10.98 | |
| CSV | Carriage Services | (0.90) | 10 per month | 0.00 | (0.08) | 2.07 | (1.94) | 5.68 | |
| PLOW | Douglas Dynamics | (0.20) | 9 per month | 0.80 | 0.21 | 3.22 | (1.61) | 8.83 | |
| CANG | Cango Inc | 0.20 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.11) | 10.83 | (7.64) | 25.75 | |
| ETD | Ethan Allen Interiors | 0.03 | 4 per month | 1.73 | (0.02) | 3.69 | (2.30) | 10.75 | |
| BBW | Build A Bear Workshop | 1.57 | 11 per month | 3.87 | 0.04 | 4.68 | (4.37) | 25.04 |
Other Forecasting Options for Smith Douglas
For every potential investor in Smith, whether a beginner or expert, Smith Douglas' price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. Smith Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in Smith. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying Smith Douglas' price trends.Smith Douglas Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with Smith Douglas stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of Smith Douglas could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing Smith Douglas by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
Smith Douglas Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how Smith Douglas stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading Smith Douglas shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying Smith Douglas stock market strength indicators, traders can identify Smith Douglas Homes entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Rate Of Daily Change | 0.98 | |||
| Day Median Price | 18.17 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 18.17 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.16) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.33) |
Smith Douglas Risk Indicators
The analysis of Smith Douglas' basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in Smith Douglas' investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting smith stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
| Mean Deviation | 2.79 | |||
| Semi Deviation | 3.54 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 3.77 | |||
| Variance | 14.25 | |||
| Downside Variance | 13.52 | |||
| Semi Variance | 12.54 | |||
| Expected Short fall | (2.93) |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.
Story Coverage note for Smith Douglas
The number of cover stories for Smith Douglas depends on current market conditions and Smith Douglas' risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Smith Douglas is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Smith Douglas' long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Smith Douglas Short Properties
Smith Douglas' future price predictability will typically decrease when Smith Douglas' long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Smith Douglas Homes often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Smith Douglas' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Smith Douglas' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 8.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 22.4 M |
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of Smith Douglas to cross-verify your projections. You can also try the Watchlist Optimization module to optimize watchlists to build efficient portfolios or rebalance existing positions based on the mean-variance optimization algorithm.
Will Household Durables sector continue expanding? Could Smith diversify its offerings? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Smith Douglas. If investors know Smith will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. Accurate valuation requires analyzing both current fundamentals and future growth trajectories. Every Smith Douglas data point contributes insight, yet successful analysis hinges on identifying the most consequential variables.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.59) | Earnings Share 1.27 | Revenue Per Share | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.06) | Return On Assets |
The market value of Smith Douglas Homes is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Smith that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Smith Douglas' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Smith Douglas' true underlying value. Seasoned market participants apply comprehensive analytical frameworks to derive fundamental worth and identify mispriced opportunities. Because Smith Douglas' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Smith Douglas' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Smith Douglas' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Smith Douglas is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. Meanwhile, Smith Douglas' quoted price indicates the marketplace figure where supply meets demand through bilateral consent.