Sumber Global (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 394.94
| SGER Stock | IDR 404.00 16.00 3.81% |
Sumber |
Sumber Global Target Price Odds to finish below 394.94
The tendency of Sumber Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 394.94 or more in 90 days |
| 404.00 | 90 days | 394.94 | about 11.57 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Sumber Global to drop to 394.94 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.57 (This Sumber Global Energy probability density function shows the probability of Sumber Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Sumber Global Energy price to stay between 394.94 and its current price of 404.0 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.96 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Sumber Global Energy has a beta of -0.35. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Sumber Global are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Sumber Global Energy is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Sumber Global Energy has an alpha of 0.0332, implying that it can generate a 0.0332 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Sumber Global Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Sumber Global
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Sumber Global Energy. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sumber Global Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Sumber Global is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Sumber Global's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Sumber Global Energy, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Sumber Global within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 40.58 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Sumber Global Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Sumber Global for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Sumber Global Energy can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Sumber Global Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sumber Global Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 77.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Sumber Global Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Sumber Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Sumber Global's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Sumber Global's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.7 B | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 178.6 B |
Sumber Global Technical Analysis
Sumber Global's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Sumber Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Sumber Global Energy. In general, you should focus on analyzing Sumber Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Sumber Global Predictive Forecast Models
Sumber Global's time-series forecasting models is one of many Sumber Global's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Sumber Global's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Sumber Global Energy
Checking the ongoing alerts about Sumber Global for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Sumber Global Energy help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Sumber Global Energy generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Sumber Global Energy has high historical volatility and very poor performance | |
| About 77.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Other Information on Investing in Sumber Stock
Sumber Global financial ratios help investors to determine whether Sumber Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Sumber with respect to the benefits of owning Sumber Global security.