Sifco Industries Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 5.13
| SIF Stock | USD 4.01 0.13 3.35% |
SIFCO |
SIFCO Industries Target Price Odds to finish over 5.13
The tendency of SIFCO Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over $ 5.13 or more in 90 days |
| 4.01 | 90 days | 5.13 | under 4 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SIFCO Industries to move over $ 5.13 or more in 90 days from now is under 4 (This SIFCO Industries probability density function shows the probability of SIFCO Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SIFCO Industries price to stay between its current price of $ 4.01 and $ 5.13 at the end of the 90-day period is about 62.81 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.22 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, SIFCO Industries will likely underperform. Additionally SIFCO Industries has an alpha of 0.0489, implying that it can generate a 0.0489 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). SIFCO Industries Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SIFCO Industries
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SIFCO Industries. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.SIFCO Industries Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SIFCO Industries is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SIFCO Industries' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SIFCO Industries, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SIFCO Industries within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.22 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.51 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.02 |
SIFCO Industries Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SIFCO Industries for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SIFCO Industries can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SIFCO Industries had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 87.02 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (8.69 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.85 M). | |
| SIFCO Industries has about 1.17 M in cash with (1.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02. | |
| Roughly 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 228 shares by Donald Molten of SIFCO Industries at 4.14 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
SIFCO Industries Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SIFCO Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential SIFCO Industries' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. SIFCO Industries' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 5.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 368 K |
SIFCO Industries Technical Analysis
SIFCO Industries' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SIFCO Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SIFCO Industries. In general, you should focus on analyzing SIFCO Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SIFCO Industries Predictive Forecast Models
SIFCO Industries' time-series forecasting models is one of many SIFCO Industries' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SIFCO Industries' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SIFCO Industries
Checking the ongoing alerts about SIFCO Industries for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SIFCO Industries help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SIFCO Industries had very high historical volatility over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 87.02 M. Reported Net Loss for the year was (8.69 M) with loss before taxes, overhead, and interest of (1.85 M). | |
| SIFCO Industries has about 1.17 M in cash with (1.36 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 0.02. | |
| Roughly 36.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders | |
| Latest headline from MacroaxisInsider: Disposition of 228 shares by Donald Molten of SIFCO Industries at 4.14 subject to Rule 16b-3 |
Check out SIFCO Industries Backtesting, SIFCO Industries Valuation, SIFCO Industries Correlation, SIFCO Industries Hype Analysis, SIFCO Industries Volatility, SIFCO Industries History as well as SIFCO Industries Performance. For more detail on how to invest in SIFCO Stock please use our How to Invest in SIFCO Industries guide.You can also try the Technical Analysis module to check basic technical indicators and analysis based on most latest market data.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of SIFCO Industries. If investors know SIFCO will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about SIFCO Industries listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.90) | Earnings Share (1.35) | Revenue Per Share 16.974 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.339 | Return On Assets (0.03) |
The market value of SIFCO Industries is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of SIFCO that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of SIFCO Industries' value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is SIFCO Industries' true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because SIFCO Industries' market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect SIFCO Industries' underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between SIFCO Industries' value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if SIFCO Industries is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, SIFCO Industries' price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.