So Martinho (Brazil) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 25.06
| SMTO3 Stock | BRL 25.48 0.42 1.68% |
SMTO3 |
So Martinho Target Price Odds to finish below 25.06
The tendency of SMTO3 Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to R$ 25.06 or more in 90 days |
| 25.48 | 90 days | 25.06 | about 11.69 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of So Martinho to drop to R$ 25.06 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.69 (This So Martinho SA probability density function shows the probability of SMTO3 Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of So Martinho SA price to stay between R$ 25.06 and its current price of R$25.48 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.39 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon So Martinho SA has a beta of -0.0263. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding So Martinho are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, So Martinho SA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally So Martinho SA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. So Martinho Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for So Martinho
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as So Martinho SA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.So Martinho Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. So Martinho is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the So Martinho's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold So Martinho SA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of So Martinho within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.14 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.93 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.13 |
So Martinho Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of So Martinho for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for So Martinho SA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| So Martinho SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| So Martinho SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
So Martinho Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of SMTO3 Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential So Martinho's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. So Martinho's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 346.4 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 3 B |
So Martinho Technical Analysis
So Martinho's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SMTO3 Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of So Martinho SA. In general, you should focus on analyzing SMTO3 Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
So Martinho Predictive Forecast Models
So Martinho's time-series forecasting models is one of many So Martinho's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary So Martinho's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about So Martinho SA
Checking the ongoing alerts about So Martinho for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for So Martinho SA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| So Martinho SA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| So Martinho SA has high financial leverage indicating that it may have difficulties to generate enough cash to satisfy its financial obligations | |
| About 54.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders |
Additional Tools for SMTO3 Stock Analysis
When running So Martinho's price analysis, check to measure So Martinho's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy So Martinho is operating at the current time. Most of So Martinho's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of So Martinho's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move So Martinho's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of So Martinho to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.