Spirit Aerosystems Holdings Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 31.36
| SPR Stock | USD 31.38 0.55 1.72% |
Spirit |
Spirit Aerosystems Target Price Odds to finish below 31.36
The tendency of Spirit Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 31.36 or more in 90 days |
| 31.38 | 90 days | 31.36 | about 15.46 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Spirit Aerosystems to drop to $ 31.36 or more in 90 days from now is about 15.46 (This Spirit Aerosystems Holdings probability density function shows the probability of Spirit Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Spirit Aerosystems price to stay between $ 31.36 and its current price of $31.38 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon Spirit Aerosystems Holdings has a beta of -0.38. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Spirit Aerosystems are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Spirit Aerosystems Holdings is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Spirit Aerosystems Holdings has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Spirit Aerosystems Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Spirit Aerosystems
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Spirit Aerosystems. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Spirit Aerosystems Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Spirit Aerosystems is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Spirit Aerosystems' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Spirit Aerosystems Holdings, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Spirit Aerosystems within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.12 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.38 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.15 |
Spirit Aerosystems Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Spirit Aerosystems for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Spirit Aerosystems can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Spirit Aerosystems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.05 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (616.2 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 58.2 M. | |
| Spirit Aerosystems Holdings has about 658.6 M in cash with (225.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.37. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Spirit Aerosystems Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Spirit Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Spirit Aerosystems' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Spirit Aerosystems' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 106.6 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 823.5 M |
Spirit Aerosystems Technical Analysis
Spirit Aerosystems' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Spirit Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Spirit Aerosystems Holdings. In general, you should focus on analyzing Spirit Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Spirit Aerosystems Predictive Forecast Models
Spirit Aerosystems' time-series forecasting models is one of many Spirit Aerosystems' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Spirit Aerosystems' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Spirit Aerosystems
Checking the ongoing alerts about Spirit Aerosystems for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Spirit Aerosystems help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Spirit Aerosystems generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| The company reported the last year's revenue of 6.05 B. Reported Net Loss for the year was (616.2 M) with profit before taxes, overhead, and interest of 58.2 M. | |
| Spirit Aerosystems Holdings has about 658.6 M in cash with (225.8 M) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 6.37. | |
| Over 94.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors |
Additional Tools for Spirit Stock Analysis
When running Spirit Aerosystems' price analysis, check to measure Spirit Aerosystems' market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy Spirit Aerosystems is operating at the current time. Most of Spirit Aerosystems' value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of Spirit Aerosystems' future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move Spirit Aerosystems' price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of Spirit Aerosystems to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.