Stadlauer Malzfabrik (Austria) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 51.22
| STM Stock | EUR 50.00 0.00 0.00% |
Stadlauer |
Stadlauer Malzfabrik Target Price Odds to finish below 51.22
The tendency of Stadlauer Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 51.22 after 90 days |
| 50.00 | 90 days | 51.22 | about 83.01 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Stadlauer Malzfabrik to stay under € 51.22 after 90 days from now is about 83.01 (This Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft probability density function shows the probability of Stadlauer Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Stadlauer Malzfabrik price to stay between its current price of € 50.00 and € 51.22 at the end of the 90-day period is about 45.23 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft has a beta of -0.33. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Stadlauer Malzfabrik are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft has an alpha of 0.0837, implying that it can generate a 0.0837 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Stadlauer Malzfabrik Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for Stadlauer Malzfabrik
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Stadlauer Malzfabrik. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Stadlauer Malzfabrik Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Stadlauer Malzfabrik is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Stadlauer Malzfabrik's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Stadlauer Malzfabrik within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.08 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.33 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.96 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
Stadlauer Malzfabrik Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Stadlauer Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Stadlauer Malzfabrik's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Stadlauer Malzfabrik's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 560 K |
Stadlauer Malzfabrik Technical Analysis
Stadlauer Malzfabrik's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Stadlauer Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Stadlauer Malzfabrik Aktiengesellschaft. In general, you should focus on analyzing Stadlauer Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Stadlauer Malzfabrik Predictive Forecast Models
Stadlauer Malzfabrik's time-series forecasting models is one of many Stadlauer Malzfabrik's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Stadlauer Malzfabrik's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Stadlauer Malzfabrik in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Stadlauer Malzfabrik's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Stadlauer Malzfabrik options trading.
Other Information on Investing in Stadlauer Stock
Stadlauer Malzfabrik financial ratios help investors to determine whether Stadlauer Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Stadlauer with respect to the benefits of owning Stadlauer Malzfabrik security.