Starwood Property Trust Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 15.43
| STWD Stock | USD 20.30 0.13 0.64% |
Starwood |
Starwood Property Target Price Odds to finish below 15.43
The tendency of Starwood Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 15.43 or more in 90 days |
| 20.30 | 90 days | 15.43 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Starwood Property to drop to $ 15.43 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Starwood Property Trust probability density function shows the probability of Starwood Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Starwood Property Trust price to stay between $ 15.43 and its current price of $20.3 at the end of the 90-day period is about 88.35 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Starwood Property has a beta of 0.43. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Starwood Property average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Starwood Property Trust will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Starwood Property Trust has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Starwood Property Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Starwood Property
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Starwood Property Trust. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Starwood Property's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Starwood Property Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Starwood Property is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Starwood Property's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Starwood Property Trust, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Starwood Property within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.43 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.36 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.09 |
Starwood Property Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Starwood Property for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Starwood Property Trust can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| On 15th of October 2024 Starwood Property paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Treehouse Hotel Silicon Valley Now Accepting Reservations |
Starwood Property Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Starwood Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Starwood Property's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Starwood Property's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 310.5 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 258.1 M |
Starwood Property Technical Analysis
Starwood Property's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Starwood Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Starwood Property Trust. In general, you should focus on analyzing Starwood Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Starwood Property Predictive Forecast Models
Starwood Property's time-series forecasting models is one of many Starwood Property's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Starwood Property's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Starwood Property Trust
Checking the ongoing alerts about Starwood Property for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Starwood Property Trust help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| On 15th of October 2024 Starwood Property paid $ 0.48 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Treehouse Hotel Silicon Valley Now Accepting Reservations |
Check out Starwood Property Backtesting, Starwood Property Valuation, Starwood Property Correlation, Starwood Property Hype Analysis, Starwood Property Volatility, Starwood Property History as well as Starwood Property Performance. You can also try the Volatility Analysis module to get historical volatility and risk analysis based on latest market data.
Is Mortgage Real Estate Investment Trusts (REITs) space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Starwood Property. If investors know Starwood will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Starwood Property listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth 0.554 | Dividend Share 1.92 | Earnings Share 1.18 | Revenue Per Share 1.39 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.25) |
The market value of Starwood Property Trust is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Starwood that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Starwood Property's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Starwood Property's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Starwood Property's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Starwood Property's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Starwood Property's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Starwood Property is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Starwood Property's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.