SOFTWARE MANSION (Poland) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 30.87
| SWM Stock | 31.40 0.40 1.29% |
SOFTWARE |
SOFTWARE MANSION Target Price Odds to finish below 30.87
The tendency of SOFTWARE Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 30.87 or more in 90 days |
| 31.40 | 90 days | 30.87 | about 8.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of SOFTWARE MANSION to drop to 30.87 or more in 90 days from now is about 8.76 (This SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA probability density function shows the probability of SOFTWARE Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA price to stay between 30.87 and its current price of 31.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 9.87 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon SOFTWARE MANSION has a beta of 0.11. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, SOFTWARE MANSION average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. SOFTWARE MANSION Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for SOFTWARE MANSION
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of SOFTWARE MANSION's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
SOFTWARE MANSION Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. SOFTWARE MANSION is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the SOFTWARE MANSION's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of SOFTWARE MANSION within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.13 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.11 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.15 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
SOFTWARE MANSION Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of SOFTWARE MANSION for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| SOFTWARE MANSION generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
SOFTWARE MANSION Technical Analysis
SOFTWARE MANSION's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. SOFTWARE Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA. In general, you should focus on analyzing SOFTWARE Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
SOFTWARE MANSION Predictive Forecast Models
SOFTWARE MANSION's time-series forecasting models is one of many SOFTWARE MANSION's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary SOFTWARE MANSION's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA
Checking the ongoing alerts about SOFTWARE MANSION for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for SOFTWARE MANSION SPOLKA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| SOFTWARE MANSION generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
Additional Tools for SOFTWARE Stock Analysis
When running SOFTWARE MANSION's price analysis, check to measure SOFTWARE MANSION's market volatility, profitability, liquidity, solvency, efficiency, growth potential, financial leverage, and other vital indicators. We have many different tools that can be utilized to determine how healthy SOFTWARE MANSION is operating at the current time. Most of SOFTWARE MANSION's value examination focuses on studying past and present price action to predict the probability of SOFTWARE MANSION's future price movements. You can analyze the entity against its peers and the financial market as a whole to determine factors that move SOFTWARE MANSION's price. Additionally, you may evaluate how the addition of SOFTWARE MANSION to your portfolios can decrease your overall portfolio volatility.