Triputra Agro (Indonesia) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 394.79

TAPG Stock  IDR 705.00  15.00  2.08%   
Triputra Agro's future price is the expected price of Triputra Agro instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Triputra Agro Persada performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Triputra Agro Backtesting, Triputra Agro Valuation, Triputra Agro Correlation, Triputra Agro Hype Analysis, Triputra Agro Volatility, Triputra Agro History as well as Triputra Agro Performance.
  
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Triputra Agro Target Price Odds to finish below 394.79

The tendency of Triputra Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  394.79  or more in 90 days
 705.00 90 days 394.79 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Triputra Agro to drop to  394.79  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Triputra Agro Persada probability density function shows the probability of Triputra Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Triputra Agro Persada price to stay between  394.79  and its current price of 705.0 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Triputra Agro Persada has a beta of -0.41. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Triputra Agro are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Triputra Agro Persada is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Triputra Agro Persada has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Triputra Agro Price Density   
JavaScript chart by amCharts 3.21.15560.43606.29657.24703.09743.85794.8835.56881.41932.36978.21Current PriceTriputra Agro Mean 0.0020.0040.0060.008
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Triputra Agro

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triputra Agro Persada. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
702.69705.00707.31
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
639.24641.55775.50
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
662.52664.83667.13
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
688.72790.00891.28
Details

Triputra Agro Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Triputra Agro is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Triputra Agro's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Triputra Agro Persada, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Triputra Agro within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.07
β
Beta against Dow Jones-0.41
σ
Overall volatility
49.49
Ir
Information ratio -0.04

Triputra Agro Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Triputra Agro for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Triputra Agro Persada can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Triputra Agro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Triputra Agro Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Triputra Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Triputra Agro's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triputra Agro's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding19.9 B
Cash And Short Term Investments1.3 T

Triputra Agro Technical Analysis

Triputra Agro's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Triputra Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Triputra Agro Persada. In general, you should focus on analyzing Triputra Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Triputra Agro Predictive Forecast Models

Triputra Agro's time-series forecasting models is one of many Triputra Agro's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Triputra Agro's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Triputra Agro Persada

Checking the ongoing alerts about Triputra Agro for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Triputra Agro Persada help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Triputra Agro generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days
About 87.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Other Information on Investing in Triputra Stock

Triputra Agro financial ratios help investors to determine whether Triputra Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Triputra with respect to the benefits of owning Triputra Agro security.