Transdigm Group Incorporated Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 1259.19
| TDG Stock | USD 1,260 20.19 1.63% |
Transdigm |
Transdigm Group Target Price Odds to finish below 1259.19
The tendency of Transdigm Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 1,259 or more in 90 days |
| 1,260 | 90 days | 1,259 | about 11.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Transdigm Group to drop to $ 1,259 or more in 90 days from now is about 11.76 (This Transdigm Group Incorporated probability density function shows the probability of Transdigm Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Transdigm Group price to stay between $ 1,259 and its current price of $1260.32 at the end of the 90-day period is near 1 .
Considering the 90-day investment horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.1 . This usually implies Transdigm Group Incorporated market returns are reactive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Transdigm Group is expected to follow. Additionally Transdigm Group Incorporated has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Transdigm Group Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Transdigm Group
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transdigm Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Transdigm Group's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Transdigm Group Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Transdigm Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Transdigm Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Transdigm Group Incorporated, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Transdigm Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.1 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.10 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 51.50 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.05 |
Transdigm Group Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Transdigm Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Transdigm Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 18th of October 2024 Transdigm Group paid $ 75.0 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Joel Reiss Sells 3,000 Shares of TransDigm Group Inc |
Transdigm Group Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Transdigm Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Transdigm Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Transdigm Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.8 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 6.3 B |
Transdigm Group Technical Analysis
Transdigm Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Transdigm Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Transdigm Group Incorporated. In general, you should focus on analyzing Transdigm Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Transdigm Group Predictive Forecast Models
Transdigm Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Transdigm Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Transdigm Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Transdigm Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Transdigm Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Transdigm Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Over 95.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 18th of October 2024 Transdigm Group paid $ 75.0 per share dividend to its current shareholders | |
| Latest headline from gurufocus.com: Insider Sell Joel Reiss Sells 3,000 Shares of TransDigm Group Inc |
Check out Transdigm Group Backtesting, Transdigm Group Valuation, Transdigm Group Correlation, Transdigm Group Hype Analysis, Transdigm Group Volatility, Transdigm Group History as well as Transdigm Group Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Aerospace & Defense space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Transdigm Group. If investors know Transdigm will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Transdigm Group listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.20) | Earnings Share 25.58 | Revenue Per Share 137.37 | Quarterly Revenue Growth 0.18 | Return On Assets 0.0981 |
The market value of Transdigm Group is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Transdigm that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Transdigm Group's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Transdigm Group's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Transdigm Group's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Transdigm Group's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Transdigm Group's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Transdigm Group is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Transdigm Group's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.