Travis Perkins (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 719.81
| TPK Stock | 760.50 16.50 2.12% |
Travis |
Travis Perkins Target Price Odds to finish below 719.81
The tendency of Travis Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 719.81 or more in 90 days |
| 760.50 | 90 days | 719.81 | near 1 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Travis Perkins to drop to 719.81 or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Travis Perkins PLC probability density function shows the probability of Travis Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Travis Perkins PLC price to stay between 719.81 and its current price of 760.5 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Travis Perkins has a beta of 0.39. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Travis Perkins average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Travis Perkins PLC will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Travis Perkins PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Travis Perkins Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Travis Perkins
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Travis Perkins PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Travis Perkins Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Travis Perkins is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Travis Perkins' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Travis Perkins PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Travis Perkins within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.3 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.39 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 55.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.23 |
Travis Perkins Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Travis Perkins for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Travis Perkins PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Travis Perkins PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 8th of November 2024 Travis Perkins paid 0.055 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Travis Perkins Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Travis Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Travis Perkins' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Travis Perkins' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 214.1 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 131.5 M |
Travis Perkins Technical Analysis
Travis Perkins' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Travis Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Travis Perkins PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Travis Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Travis Perkins Predictive Forecast Models
Travis Perkins' time-series forecasting models is one of many Travis Perkins' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Travis Perkins' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Travis Perkins PLC
Checking the ongoing alerts about Travis Perkins for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Travis Perkins PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Travis Perkins PLC generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| About 74.0% of the company shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| On 8th of November 2024 Travis Perkins paid 0.055 per share dividend to its current shareholders |
Other Information on Investing in Travis Stock
Travis Perkins financial ratios help investors to determine whether Travis Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Travis with respect to the benefits of owning Travis Perkins security.