Transurban Group Stock Probability of Future Pink Sheet Price Finishing Under 8.86
| TRAUF Stock | USD 8.86 0.05 0.57% |
Transurban |
Transurban Target Price Odds to finish below 8.86
The tendency of Transurban Pink Sheet price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move below current price in 90 days |
| 8.86 | 90 days | 8.86 | about 35.24 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Transurban to move below current price in 90 days from now is about 35.24 (This Transurban Group probability density function shows the probability of Transurban Pink Sheet to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Transurban Group has a beta of -0.28. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Transurban are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Transurban Group is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Transurban Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Transurban Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Transurban
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Transurban Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the pink sheet market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the pink sheet market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Transurban's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Transurban Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Transurban is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Transurban's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Transurban Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Transurban within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.06 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.28 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
Transurban Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Transurban for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Transurban Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Transurban Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Transurban Group has accumulated 16.58 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.18, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Transurban Group has a current ratio of 0.68, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Transurban until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Transurban's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Transurban Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Transurban to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Transurban's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 55.0% of Transurban shares are owned by institutional investors |
Transurban Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Transurban Pink Sheet often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Transurban's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Transurban's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 3.1 B |
Transurban Technical Analysis
Transurban's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Transurban Pink Sheet technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Transurban Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Transurban Pink Sheet price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Transurban Predictive Forecast Models
Transurban's time-series forecasting models is one of many Transurban's pink sheet analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Transurban's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the pink sheet market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Transurban Group
Checking the ongoing alerts about Transurban for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Transurban Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Transurban Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Transurban Group has accumulated 16.58 B in total debt with debt to equity ratio (D/E) of 1.18, which is about average as compared to similar companies. Transurban Group has a current ratio of 0.68, indicating that it has a negative working capital and may not be able to pay financial obligations in time and when they become due. Debt can assist Transurban until it has trouble settling it off, either with new capital or with free cash flow. So, Transurban's shareholders could walk away with nothing if the company can't fulfill its legal obligations to repay debt. However, a more frequent occurrence is when companies like Transurban Group sell additional shares at bargain prices, diluting existing shareholders. Debt, in this case, can be an excellent and much better tool for Transurban to invest in growth at high rates of return. When we think about Transurban's use of debt, we should always consider it together with cash and equity. | |
| About 55.0% of Transurban shares are owned by institutional investors |
Other Information on Investing in Transurban Pink Sheet
Transurban financial ratios help investors to determine whether Transurban Pink Sheet is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Transurban with respect to the benefits of owning Transurban security.