Triad Group (UK) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 226.60

TRD Stock   290.00  0.00  0.00%   
Triad Group's future price is the expected price of Triad Group instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Triad Group PLC performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Triad Group Backtesting, Triad Group Valuation, Triad Group Correlation, Triad Group Hype Analysis, Triad Group Volatility, Triad Group History as well as Triad Group Performance.
  
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Triad Group Target Price Odds to finish below 226.60

The tendency of Triad Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to drop to  226.60  or more in 90 days
 290.00 90 days 226.60 
near 1
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Triad Group to drop to  226.60  or more in 90 days from now is near 1 (This Triad Group PLC probability density function shows the probability of Triad Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Triad Group PLC price to stay between  226.60  and its current price of 290.0 at the end of the 90-day period is about 35.67 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.15 . This usually implies Triad Group PLC market returns are highly-sensitive to returns on the market. As the market goes up or down, Triad Group is expected to follow. Additionally Triad Group PLC has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Triad Group Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Triad Group

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Triad Group PLC. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
287.79290.00292.21
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
276.19278.40319.00
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
271.21273.41275.62
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
290.00290.00290.00
Details

Triad Group Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Triad Group is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Triad Group's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Triad Group PLC, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Triad Group within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.06
β
Beta against Dow Jones1.15
σ
Overall volatility
17.64
Ir
Information ratio -0.02

Triad Group Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Triad Group for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Triad Group PLC can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 14.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.78 M.
Triad Group generates negative cash flow from operations
About 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Triad Group Price Density Drivers

Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Triad Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Triad Group's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Triad Group's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding16.6 M
Cash And Short Term Investments2.1 M

Triad Group Technical Analysis

Triad Group's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Triad Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Triad Group PLC. In general, you should focus on analyzing Triad Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Triad Group Predictive Forecast Models

Triad Group's time-series forecasting models is one of many Triad Group's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Triad Group's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Triad Group PLC

Checking the ongoing alerts about Triad Group for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Triad Group PLC help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
The company reported the revenue of 14.05 M. Net Loss for the year was (1.01 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.78 M.
Triad Group generates negative cash flow from operations
About 99.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by corporate insiders

Other Information on Investing in Triad Stock

Triad Group financial ratios help investors to determine whether Triad Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Triad with respect to the benefits of owning Triad Group security.