UMC Electronics (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 2.07
| UM3 Stock | EUR 1.95 0.02 1.02% |
UMC |
UMC Electronics Target Price Odds to finish below 2.07
The tendency of UMC Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay under € 2.07 after 90 days |
| 1.95 | 90 days | 2.07 | about 13.96 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of UMC Electronics to stay under € 2.07 after 90 days from now is about 13.96 (This UMC Electronics Co probability density function shows the probability of UMC Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of UMC Electronics price to stay between its current price of € 1.95 and € 2.07 at the end of the 90-day period is about 11.8 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon UMC Electronics has a beta of 0.18. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, UMC Electronics average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding UMC Electronics Co will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally UMC Electronics Co has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. UMC Electronics Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for UMC Electronics
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as UMC Electronics. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.UMC Electronics Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. UMC Electronics is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the UMC Electronics' value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold UMC Electronics Co, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of UMC Electronics within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.22 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.18 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.1 |
UMC Electronics Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of UMC Electronics for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for UMC Electronics can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| UMC Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMC Electronics may become a speculative penny stock | |
| UMC Electronics Co has accumulated about 9.17 B in cash with (3.51 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 324.29, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
UMC Electronics Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of UMC Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential UMC Electronics' investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. UMC Electronics' indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 28.3 M |
UMC Electronics Technical Analysis
UMC Electronics' future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. UMC Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of UMC Electronics Co. In general, you should focus on analyzing UMC Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
UMC Electronics Predictive Forecast Models
UMC Electronics' time-series forecasting models is one of many UMC Electronics' stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary UMC Electronics' historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about UMC Electronics
Checking the ongoing alerts about UMC Electronics for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for UMC Electronics help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| UMC Electronics generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| UMC Electronics may become a speculative penny stock | |
| UMC Electronics Co has accumulated about 9.17 B in cash with (3.51 B) of positive cash flow from operations. This results in cash-per-share (CPS) ratio of 324.29, which can makes it an attractive takeover target, given it will continue generating positive cash flow. | |
| Roughly 65.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders |
Other Information on Investing in UMC Stock
UMC Electronics financial ratios help investors to determine whether UMC Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in UMC with respect to the benefits of owning UMC Electronics security.