JDS UNIPHASE (Germany) Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 6.85
| UNS1 Stock | EUR 9.80 0.45 4.81% |
JDS |
JDS UNIPHASE Target Price Odds to finish below 6.85
The tendency of JDS Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to € 6.85 or more in 90 days |
| 9.80 | 90 days | 6.85 | roughly 2.6 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of JDS UNIPHASE to drop to € 6.85 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.6 (This JDS UNIPHASE probability density function shows the probability of JDS Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of JDS UNIPHASE price to stay between € 6.85 and its current price of €9.8 at the end of the 90-day period is about 92.51 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the stock has the beta coefficient of 1.53 . This usually implies as the benchmark fluctuates upward, the company is expected to outperform it on average. However, if the benchmark returns are projected to be negative, JDS UNIPHASE will likely underperform. Additionally JDS UNIPHASE has an alpha of 0.2358, implying that it can generate a 0.24 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). JDS UNIPHASE Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for JDS UNIPHASE
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as JDS UNIPHASE. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.JDS UNIPHASE Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. JDS UNIPHASE is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the JDS UNIPHASE's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold JDS UNIPHASE, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of JDS UNIPHASE within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.24 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 1.53 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.82 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.12 |
JDS UNIPHASE Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of JDS Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential JDS UNIPHASE's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. JDS UNIPHASE's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 226 M | |
| Short Long Term Debt | 68.4 M |
JDS UNIPHASE Technical Analysis
JDS UNIPHASE's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. JDS Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of JDS UNIPHASE. In general, you should focus on analyzing JDS Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
JDS UNIPHASE Predictive Forecast Models
JDS UNIPHASE's time-series forecasting models is one of many JDS UNIPHASE's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary JDS UNIPHASE's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards JDS UNIPHASE in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, JDS UNIPHASE's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from JDS UNIPHASE options trading.
Other Information on Investing in JDS Stock
JDS UNIPHASE financial ratios help investors to determine whether JDS Stock is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in JDS with respect to the benefits of owning JDS UNIPHASE security.