AMGN 42 22 FEB 52 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 77.74
| 031162DF4 | 81.83 2.37 2.98% |
031162DF4 |
031162DF4 Target Price Odds to finish below 77.74
The tendency of 031162DF4 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 77.74 or more in 90 days |
| 81.83 | 90 days | 77.74 | about 1.28 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 031162DF4 to drop to 77.74 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.28 (This AMGN 42 22 FEB 52 probability density function shows the probability of 031162DF4 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of AMGN 42 22 price to stay between 77.74 and its current price of 81.83 at the end of the 90-day period is about 30.21 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 031162DF4 has a beta of 0.35. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 031162DF4 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding AMGN 42 22 FEB 52 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally AMGN 42 22 FEB 52 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 031162DF4 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 031162DF4
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as AMGN 42 22. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.031162DF4 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 031162DF4 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 031162DF4's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold AMGN 42 22 FEB 52, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 031162DF4 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.35 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.35 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.06 |
031162DF4 Technical Analysis
031162DF4's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 031162DF4 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of AMGN 42 22 FEB 52. In general, you should focus on analyzing 031162DF4 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
031162DF4 Predictive Forecast Models
031162DF4's time-series forecasting models is one of many 031162DF4's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 031162DF4's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards 031162DF4 in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, 031162DF4's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from 031162DF4 options trading.
Other Information on Investing in 031162DF4 Bond
031162DF4 financial ratios help investors to determine whether 031162DF4 Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in 031162DF4 with respect to the benefits of owning 031162DF4 security.