Ardagh Holdings USA Chance of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 47.85
| 03969AAP5 | 54.50 0.00 0.00% |
Ardagh |
Ardagh Target Price Odds to finish below 47.85
The tendency of Ardagh Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 47.85 or more in 90 days |
| 54.50 | 90 days | 47.85 | about 1.76 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Ardagh to drop to 47.85 or more in 90 days from now is about 1.76 (This Ardagh Holdings USA probability density function shows the probability of Ardagh Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Ardagh Holdings USA price to stay between 47.85 and its current price of 54.5 at the end of the 90-day period is about 10.45 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Ardagh Holdings USA has a beta of -0.0206. This usually implies as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Ardagh are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Ardagh Holdings USA is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Ardagh Holdings USA has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. Ardagh Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Ardagh
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Ardagh Holdings USA. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Ardagh Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Ardagh is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Ardagh's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Ardagh Holdings USA, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Ardagh within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.02 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 7.08 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.03 |
Ardagh Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Ardagh for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Ardagh Holdings USA can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| Ardagh Holdings USA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ardagh Holdings USA has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Ardagh Technical Analysis
Ardagh's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Ardagh Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Ardagh Holdings USA. In general, you should focus on analyzing Ardagh Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Ardagh Predictive Forecast Models
Ardagh's time-series forecasting models is one of many Ardagh's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Ardagh's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Ardagh Holdings USA
Checking the ongoing alerts about Ardagh for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Ardagh Holdings USA help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| Ardagh Holdings USA generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| Ardagh Holdings USA has high historical volatility and very poor performance |
Other Information on Investing in Ardagh Bond
Ardagh financial ratios help investors to determine whether Ardagh Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Ardagh with respect to the benefits of owning Ardagh security.