US46647PEA03 Probability of Future Bond Price Finishing Under 99.99
| 46647PEA0 | 100.27 0.10 0.1% |
46647PEA0 |
46647PEA0 Target Price Odds to finish below 99.99
The tendency of 46647PEA0 Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to 99.99 or more in 90 days |
| 100.27 | 90 days | 99.99 | roughly 2.99 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of 46647PEA0 to drop to 99.99 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.99 (This US46647PEA03 probability density function shows the probability of 46647PEA0 Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of US46647PEA03 price to stay between 99.99 and its current price of 100.27 at the end of the 90-day period is nearly 4.84 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon 46647PEA0 has a beta of 0.0016. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, 46647PEA0 average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding US46647PEA03 will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally US46647PEA03 has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. 46647PEA0 Price Density |
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Predictive Modules for 46647PEA0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US46647PEA03. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 46647PEA0. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 46647PEA0's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 46647PEA0's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US46647PEA03.46647PEA0 Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. 46647PEA0 is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the 46647PEA0's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold US46647PEA03, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of 46647PEA0 within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.03 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.63 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.52 |
46647PEA0 Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of 46647PEA0 for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for US46647PEA03 can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| US46647PEA03 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |
46647PEA0 Technical Analysis
46647PEA0's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. 46647PEA0 Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of US46647PEA03. In general, you should focus on analyzing 46647PEA0 Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
46647PEA0 Predictive Forecast Models
46647PEA0's time-series forecasting models is one of many 46647PEA0's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary 46647PEA0's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about US46647PEA03
Checking the ongoing alerts about 46647PEA0 for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for US46647PEA03 help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| US46647PEA03 generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days |