46647PEA0 Forecast - Simple Exponential Smoothing
| 46647PEA0 | 100.27 0.10 0.1% |
46647PEA0 |
46647PEA0 Simple Exponential Smoothing Price Forecast For the 3rd of December
Given 90 days horizon, the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasted value of US46647PEA03 on the next trading day is expected to be 100.29 with a mean absolute deviation of 0.18, mean absolute percentage error of 0.07, and the sum of the absolute errors of 11.28.Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict 46647PEA0 Bond prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that 46647PEA0's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).
46647PEA0 Bond Forecast Pattern
46647PEA0 Forecasted Value
In the context of forecasting 46647PEA0's Bond value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. 46647PEA0's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 99.99 and 100.59, respectively. We have considered 46647PEA0's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Model Predictive Factors
The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Simple Exponential Smoothing forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of 46647PEA0 bond data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent 46647PEA0 bond, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.| AIC | Akaike Information Criteria | 115.5031 |
| Bias | Arithmetic mean of the errors | 0.0432 |
| MAD | Mean absolute deviation | 0.1849 |
| MAPE | Mean absolute percentage error | 0.0018 |
| SAE | Sum of the absolute errors | 11.2802 |
Predictive Modules for 46647PEA0
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as US46647PEA03. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as 46647PEA0. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against 46647PEA0's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, 46647PEA0's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in US46647PEA03.Other Forecasting Options for 46647PEA0
For every potential investor in 46647PEA0, whether a beginner or expert, 46647PEA0's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. 46647PEA0 Bond price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in 46647PEA0. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying 46647PEA0's price trends.46647PEA0 Related Equities
One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with 46647PEA0 bond to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of 46647PEA0 could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing 46647PEA0 by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
| Risk & Return | Correlation |
US46647PEA03 Technical and Predictive Analytics
The bond market is financially volatile. Despite the volatility, there exist limitless possibilities of gaining profits and building passive income portfolios. With the complexity of 46647PEA0's price movements, a comprehensive understanding of forecasting methods that an investor can rely on to make the right move is invaluable. These methods predict trends that assist an investor in predicting the movement of 46647PEA0's current price.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
46647PEA0 Market Strength Events
Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how 46647PEA0 bond reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading 46647PEA0 shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying 46647PEA0 bond market strength indicators, traders can identify US46647PEA03 entry and exit signals to maximize returns.
| Daily Balance Of Power | (9,223,372,036,855) | |||
| Rate Of Daily Change | 1.0 | |||
| Day Median Price | 100.27 | |||
| Day Typical Price | 100.27 | |||
| Price Action Indicator | (0.05) | |||
| Period Momentum Indicator | (0.10) |
46647PEA0 Risk Indicators
The analysis of 46647PEA0's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in 46647PEA0's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting 46647pea0 bond prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios. One of the essential factors to consider when estimating the risk of default for a bond instrument is its duration, which is the bond's price sensitivity to changes in interest rates. The duration of US46647PEA03 bond is primarily affected by its yield, coupon rate, and time to maturity. The duration of a bond will be higher the lower its coupon, lower its yield, and longer the time left to maturity.
| Mean Deviation | 0.185 | |||
| Standard Deviation | 0.2932 | |||
| Variance | 0.086 |
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.