Smurfit Kappa Group Odds of Future Bond Price Finishing Over 102.39

832724AB4   102.39  0.05  0.05%   
Smurfit's future price is the expected price of Smurfit instrument. It is based on its current growth rate as well as the projected cash flow expected by the investors. This tool provides a mechanism to make assumptions about the upside potential and downside risk of Smurfit Kappa Group performance during a given time horizon utilizing its historical volatility. Check out Smurfit Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Smurfit Correlation, Smurfit Hype Analysis, Smurfit Volatility, Smurfit History as well as Smurfit Performance.
  
Please specify Smurfit's target price for which you would like Smurfit odds to be computed.

Smurfit Target Price Odds to finish over 102.39

The tendency of Smurfit Bond price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
Current PriceHorizonTarget PriceOdds to move above the current price in 90 days
 102.39 90 days 102.39 
about 78.46
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Smurfit to move above the current price in 90 days from now is about 78.46 (This Smurfit Kappa Group probability density function shows the probability of Smurfit Bond to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon Smurfit has a beta of 0.0463. This usually implies as returns on the market go up, Smurfit average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding Smurfit Kappa Group will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally Smurfit Kappa Group has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial.
   Smurfit Price Density   
       Price  

Predictive Modules for Smurfit

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Smurfit Kappa Group. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the bond market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the bond market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
102.18102.39102.60
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
92.15102.62102.83
Details
Naive
Forecast
LowNextHigh
102.31102.52102.72
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowerMiddle BandUpper
102.16102.48102.81
Details
Please note, it is not enough to conduct a financial or market analysis of a single entity such as Smurfit. Your research has to be compared to or analyzed against Smurfit's peers to derive any actionable benefits. When done correctly, Smurfit's competitive analysis will give you plenty of quantitative and qualitative data to validate your investment decisions or develop an entirely new strategy toward taking a position in Smurfit Kappa Group.

Smurfit Risk Indicators

For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Smurfit is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Smurfit's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Smurfit Kappa Group, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Smurfit within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.
α
Alpha over Dow Jones
-0.01
β
Beta against Dow Jones0.05
σ
Overall volatility
0.33
Ir
Information ratio -0.5

Smurfit Alerts and Suggestions

In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Smurfit for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Smurfit Kappa Group can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smurfit Kappa Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Smurfit Technical Analysis

Smurfit's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Smurfit Bond technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Smurfit Kappa Group. In general, you should focus on analyzing Smurfit Bond price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.

Smurfit Predictive Forecast Models

Smurfit's time-series forecasting models is one of many Smurfit's bond analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Smurfit's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the bond market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.

Things to note about Smurfit Kappa Group

Checking the ongoing alerts about Smurfit for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Smurfit Kappa Group help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
Smurfit Kappa Group generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days

Other Information on Investing in Smurfit Bond

Smurfit financial ratios help investors to determine whether Smurfit Bond is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Smurfit with respect to the benefits of owning Smurfit security.