International Government Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.96
| VCIFX Fund | USD 10.00 0.01 0.1% |
International |
International Government Target Price Odds to finish below 9.96
The tendency of International Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.96 or more in 90 days |
| 10.00 | 90 days | 9.96 | roughly 2.18 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of International Government to drop to $ 9.96 or more in 90 days from now is roughly 2.18 (This International Government Bond probability density function shows the probability of International Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of International Government price to stay between $ 9.96 and its current price of $10.0 at the end of the 90-day period is roughly 2.05 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon International Government Bond has a beta of -0.0542. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding International Government are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, International Government Bond is likely to outperform the market. Additionally International Government Bond has a negative alpha, implying that the risk taken by holding this instrument is not justified. The company is significantly underperforming the Dow Jones Industrial. International Government Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for International Government
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as International Government. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.International Government Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. International Government is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the International Government's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold International Government Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of International Government within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | -0.04 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.05 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.14 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.56 |
International Government Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of International Government for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for International Government can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| International Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| International Government generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund keeps about 98.02% of its net assets in bonds |
International Government Technical Analysis
International Government's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. International Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of International Government Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing International Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
International Government Predictive Forecast Models
International Government's time-series forecasting models is one of many International Government's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary International Government's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about International Government
Checking the ongoing alerts about International Government for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for International Government help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| International Government generated a negative expected return over the last 90 days | |
| International Government generated five year return of -1.0% | |
| This fund keeps about 98.02% of its net assets in bonds |
Other Information on Investing in International Mutual Fund
International Government financial ratios help investors to determine whether International Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in International with respect to the benefits of owning International Government security.
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