Vista Outdoor Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Over 43.75
| VSTO Stock | USD 44.42 0.17 0.38% |
Vista |
Vista Outdoor Target Price Odds to finish over 43.75
The tendency of Vista Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to stay above $ 43.75 in 90 days |
| 44.42 | 90 days | 43.75 | about 21.81 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vista Outdoor to stay above $ 43.75 in 90 days from now is about 21.81 (This Vista Outdoor probability density function shows the probability of Vista Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vista Outdoor price to stay between $ 43.75 and its current price of $44.42 at the end of the 90-day period is about 7.2 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vista Outdoor has a beta of -0.0039. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vista Outdoor are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vista Outdoor is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vista Outdoor has an alpha of 0.1985, implying that it can generate a 0.2 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vista Outdoor Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vista Outdoor
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vista Outdoor. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vista Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vista Outdoor Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vista Outdoor is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vista Outdoor's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vista Outdoor, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vista Outdoor within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.20 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.0039 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 2.44 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
Vista Outdoor Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vista Outdoor for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vista Outdoor can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B. | |
| Vista Outdoor has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vista Said to Near LogicMonitor Stake Sale at 2.4 Billion Value |
Vista Outdoor Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of Vista Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential Vista Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.3 M |
Vista Outdoor Technical Analysis
Vista Outdoor's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vista Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vista Outdoor. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vista Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vista Outdoor Predictive Forecast Models
Vista Outdoor's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vista Outdoor's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vista Outdoor's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vista Outdoor
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vista Outdoor for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vista Outdoor help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the previous year's revenue of 2.75 B. Net Loss for the year was (5.5 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 1.04 B. | |
| Vista Outdoor has a poor financial position based on the latest SEC disclosures | |
| Over 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors | |
| Latest headline from finance.yahoo.com: Vista Said to Near LogicMonitor Stake Sale at 2.4 Billion Value |
Check out Vista Outdoor Backtesting, Vista Outdoor Valuation, Vista Outdoor Correlation, Vista Outdoor Hype Analysis, Vista Outdoor Volatility, Vista Outdoor History as well as Vista Outdoor Performance. To learn how to invest in Vista Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vista Outdoor guide.You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vista Outdoor. If investors know Vista will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vista Outdoor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Earnings Share (0.19) | Revenue Per Share 46.113 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0643 |
The market value of Vista Outdoor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vista that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vista Outdoor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vista Outdoor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vista Outdoor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vista Outdoor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vista Outdoor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vista Outdoor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vista Outdoor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.