Vista Outdoor Stock Price Prediction
| VSTO Stock | USD 44.25 0.10 0.23% |
Oversold Vs Overbought
68
Oversold | Overbought |
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | EPS Estimate Next Quarter 1.01 | EPS Estimate Current Year 3.85 | EPS Estimate Next Year 4.47 | Wall Street Target Price 42.816 |
Using Vista Outdoor hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of Vista Outdoor from the perspective of Vista Outdoor response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
Vista Outdoor Hype to Price Pattern
Investor biases related to Vista Outdoor's public news can be used to forecast risks associated with an investment in Vista. The trend in average sentiment can be used to explain how an investor holding Vista can time the market purely based on public headlines and social activities around Vista Outdoor. Please note that most equities that are difficult to arbitrage are affected by market sentiment the most.
Some investors profit by finding stocks that are overvalued or undervalued based on market sentiment. The correlation of Vista Outdoor's market sentiment to its price can help taders to make decisions based on the overall investors consensus about Vista Outdoor.
The fear of missing out, i.e., FOMO, can cause potential investors in Vista Outdoor to buy its stock at a price that has no basis in reality. In that case, they are not buying Vista because the equity is a good investment, but because they need to do something to avoid the feeling of missing out. On the other hand, investors will often sell stocks at prices well below their value during bear markets because they need to stop feeling the pain of losing money.
Vista Outdoor after-hype prediction price | USD 44.15 |
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
Vista |
Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vista Outdoor's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vista Outdoor After-Hype Price Prediction Density Analysis
As far as predicting the price of Vista Outdoor at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in Vista Outdoor or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of Vista Outdoor, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
Next price density |
| Expected price to next headline |
Vista Outdoor Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility
In the context of predicting Vista Outdoor's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on Vista Outdoor's historical news coverage. Vista Outdoor's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 42.57 and 45.73, respectively. We have considered Vista Outdoor's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
Vista Outdoor is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of Vista Outdoor is based on 3 months time horizon.
Vista Outdoor Stock Price Prediction Analysis
Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as Vista Outdoor is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading Vista Outdoor backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with Vista Outdoor, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
| Expected Return | Period Volatility | Hype Elasticity | Related Elasticity | News Density | Related Density | Expected Hype |
0.19 | 1.58 | 0.02 | 0.01 | 10 Events / Month | 5 Events / Month | In about 10 days |
| Latest traded price | Expected after-news price | Potential return on next major news | Average after-hype volatility | ||
44.25 | 44.15 | 0.00 |
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Vista Outdoor Hype Timeline
Vista Outdoor is at this time traded for 44.25. The entity has historical hype elasticity of 0.02, and average elasticity to hype of competition of 0.01. Vista is anticipated not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is over 100%. The immediate return on the next news is anticipated to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.19%. %. The volatility of related hype on Vista Outdoor is about 2122.39%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 44.26. About 92.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by institutional investors. The book value of Vista Outdoor was at this time reported as 21.08. The company has Price/Earnings To Growth (PEG) ratio of 0.73. Vista Outdoor recorded a loss per share of 0.19. The entity had not issued any dividends in recent years. Given the investment horizon of 90 days the next anticipated press release will be in about 10 days. Check out Vista Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections.Vista Outdoor Related Hype Analysis
Having access to credible news sources related to Vista Outdoor's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict Vista Outdoor's future price movements. Getting to know how Vista Outdoor's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how Vista Outdoor may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.
| HypeElasticity | NewsDensity | SemiDeviation | InformationRatio | PotentialUpside | ValueAt Risk | MaximumDrawdown | |||
| CLAR | Clarus Corp | 0.33 | 9 per month | 0.00 | (0.05) | 4.24 | (4.77) | 12.96 | |
| JOUT | Johnson Outdoors | 0.29 | 4 per month | 0.00 | (0.15) | 2.89 | (2.46) | 8.15 | |
| ESCA | Escalade Incorporated | 0.12 | 9 per month | 3.20 | 0.03 | 5.62 | (4.79) | 17.10 | |
| JAKK | JAKKS Pacific | 0.16 | 8 per month | 2.05 | 0.09 | 3.97 | (3.44) | 20.03 | |
| AOUT | American Outdoor Brands | (0.13) | 11 per month | 2.43 | 0.03 | 3.81 | (4.77) | 15.12 | |
| OSW | OneSpaWorld Holdings | 0.01 | 9 per month | 1.15 | 0.15 | 3.27 | (2.29) | 8.13 | |
| LEAT | Leatt Corp | 0.00 | 0 per month | 0.00 | (0.04) | 4.70 | (4.60) | 24.85 | |
| SEAS | SeaWorld Entertainment | 0.00 | 0 per month | 2.18 | (0.03) | 3.85 | (3.45) | 10.32 | |
| FUN | Six Flags Entertainment | (0.11) | 6 per month | 2.08 | (0.0006) | 3.54 | (3.85) | 8.57 |
Vista Outdoor Additional Predictive Modules
Most predictive techniques to examine Vista price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for Vista using various technical indicators. When you analyze Vista charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.| Cycle Indicators | ||
| Math Operators | ||
| Math Transform | ||
| Momentum Indicators | ||
| Overlap Studies | ||
| Pattern Recognition | ||
| Price Transform | ||
| Statistic Functions | ||
| Volatility Indicators | ||
| Volume Indicators |
About Vista Outdoor Predictive Indicators
The successful prediction of Vista Outdoor stock price could yield a significant profit to investors. But is it possible? The efficient-market hypothesis suggests that all published stock prices of traded companies, such as Vista Outdoor, already reflect all publicly available information. This academic statement is a fundamental principle of many financial and investing theories used today. However, the typical investor usually disagrees with a 'textbook' version of this hypothesis and continually tries to find mispriced stocks to increase returns. We use internally-developed statistical techniques to arrive at the intrinsic value of Vista Outdoor based on analysis of Vista Outdoor hews, social hype, general headline patterns, and widely used predictive technical indicators.
We also calculate exposure to Vista Outdoor's market risk, different technical and fundamental indicators, relevant financial multiples and ratios, and then comparing them to Vista Outdoor's related companies. | 2023 | 2024 (projected) | Dividend Yield | 0.0707 | 0.0628 | Price To Sales Ratio | 0.69 | 1.05 |
Story Coverage note for Vista Outdoor
The number of cover stories for Vista Outdoor depends on current market conditions and Vista Outdoor's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that Vista Outdoor is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about Vista Outdoor's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.
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Vista Outdoor Short Properties
Vista Outdoor's future price predictability will typically decrease when Vista Outdoor's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of Vista Outdoor often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential Vista Outdoor's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. Vista Outdoor's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 57.9 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 60.3 M |
Check out Vista Outdoor Basic Forecasting Models to cross-verify your projections. To learn how to invest in Vista Stock, please use our How to Invest in Vista Outdoor guide.You can also try the Portfolio Backtesting module to avoid under-diversification and over-optimization by backtesting your portfolios.
Is Leisure Products space expected to grow? Or is there an opportunity to expand the business' product line in the future? Factors like these will boost the valuation of Vista Outdoor. If investors know Vista will grow in the future, the company's valuation will be higher. The financial industry is built on trying to define current growth potential and future valuation accurately. All the valuation information about Vista Outdoor listed above have to be considered, but the key to understanding future value is determining which factors weigh more heavily than others.
Quarterly Earnings Growth (0.07) | Earnings Share (0.19) | Revenue Per Share 46.113 | Quarterly Revenue Growth (0.02) | Return On Assets 0.0643 |
The market value of Vista Outdoor is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vista that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vista Outdoor's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vista Outdoor's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vista Outdoor's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vista Outdoor's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vista Outdoor's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vista Outdoor is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vista Outdoor's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.