Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt Etf Probability of Future Etf Price Finishing Over 105.04
| VTEI Etf | 100.04 0.04 0.04% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Intermediate Target Price Odds to finish over 105.04
The tendency of Vanguard Etf price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to move over 105.04 or more in 90 days |
| 100.04 | 90 days | 105.04 | close to zero percent |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Intermediate to move over 105.04 or more in 90 days from now is close to zero percent (This Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Etf to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Intermediate price to stay between its current price of 100.04 and 105.04 at the end of the 90-day period is about 51.9 .
Given the investment horizon of 90 days Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt has a beta of -0.0808. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Intermediate are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt has an alpha of 0.0053, implying that it can generate a 0.005271 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vanguard Intermediate Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Intermediate
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Intermediate. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the etf market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the etf market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Sophisticated investors, who have witnessed many market ups and downs, anticipate that the market will even out over time. This tendency of Vanguard Intermediate's price to converge to an average value over time is called mean reversion. However, historically, high market prices usually discourage investors that believe in mean reversion to invest, while low prices are viewed as an opportunity to buy.
Vanguard Intermediate Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Intermediate is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Intermediate's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Intermediate within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.08 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.42 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -0.62 |
Vanguard Intermediate Technical Analysis
Vanguard Intermediate's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Etf technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Intermediate Term Tax Exempt. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Etf price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Intermediate Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Intermediate's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Intermediate's etf analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Intermediate's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the etf market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Some investors attempt to determine whether the market's mood is bullish or bearish by monitoring changes in market sentiment. Unlike more traditional methods such as technical analysis, investor sentiment usually refers to the aggregate attitude towards Vanguard Intermediate in the overall investment community. So, suppose investors can accurately measure the market's sentiment. In that case, they can use it for their benefit. For example, some tools to gauge market sentiment could be utilized using contrarian indexes, Vanguard Intermediate's short interest history, or implied volatility extrapolated from Vanguard Intermediate options trading.
Check out Vanguard Intermediate Backtesting, Portfolio Optimization, Vanguard Intermediate Correlation, Vanguard Intermediate Hype Analysis, Vanguard Intermediate Volatility, Vanguard Intermediate History as well as Vanguard Intermediate Performance. You can also try the Bollinger Bands module to use Bollinger Bands indicator to analyze target price for a given investing horizon.
The market value of Vanguard Intermediate is measured differently than its book value, which is the value of Vanguard that is recorded on the company's balance sheet. Investors also form their own opinion of Vanguard Intermediate's value that differs from its market value or its book value, called intrinsic value, which is Vanguard Intermediate's true underlying value. Investors use various methods to calculate intrinsic value and buy a stock when its market value falls below its intrinsic value. Because Vanguard Intermediate's market value can be influenced by many factors that don't directly affect Vanguard Intermediate's underlying business (such as a pandemic or basic market pessimism), market value can vary widely from intrinsic value.
Please note, there is a significant difference between Vanguard Intermediate's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if Vanguard Intermediate is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, Vanguard Intermediate's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.