Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond Fund Probability of Future Mutual Fund Price Finishing Under 9.97
| VUBFX Fund | USD 10.03 0.01 0.1% |
Vanguard |
Vanguard Ultra-short-term Target Price Odds to finish below 9.97
The tendency of Vanguard Mutual Fund price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to $ 9.97 or more in 90 days |
| 10.03 | 90 days | 9.97 | about 23.42 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of Vanguard Ultra-short-term to drop to $ 9.97 or more in 90 days from now is about 23.42 (This Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond probability density function shows the probability of Vanguard Mutual Fund to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of Vanguard Ultra-short-term price to stay between $ 9.97 and its current price of $10.03 at the end of the 90-day period is about 64.21 .
Assuming the 90 days horizon Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond has a beta of -0.0133. This entails as returns on the benchmark increase, returns on holding Vanguard Ultra-short-term are expected to decrease at a much lower rate. During a bear market, however, Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond is likely to outperform the market. Additionally Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond has an alpha of 0.0081, implying that it can generate a 0.008054 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). Vanguard Ultra-short-term Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for Vanguard Ultra-short-term
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as Vanguard Ultra-short-term. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the mutual fund market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the mutual fund market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.Vanguard Ultra-short-term Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. Vanguard Ultra-short-term is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the Vanguard Ultra-short-term's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of Vanguard Ultra-short-term within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.01 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.01 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 0.03 | |
Ir | Information ratio | -1.43 |
Vanguard Ultra-short-term Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of Vanguard Ultra-short-term for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for Vanguard Ultra-short-term can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The fund keeps about 7.88% of its net assets in cash |
Vanguard Ultra-short-term Technical Analysis
Vanguard Ultra-short-term's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. Vanguard Mutual Fund technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of Vanguard Ultra Short Term Bond. In general, you should focus on analyzing Vanguard Mutual Fund price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
Vanguard Ultra-short-term Predictive Forecast Models
Vanguard Ultra-short-term's time-series forecasting models is one of many Vanguard Ultra-short-term's mutual fund analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary Vanguard Ultra-short-term's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the mutual fund market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about Vanguard Ultra-short-term
Checking the ongoing alerts about Vanguard Ultra-short-term for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for Vanguard Ultra-short-term help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The fund keeps about 7.88% of its net assets in cash |
Other Information on Investing in Vanguard Mutual Fund
Vanguard Ultra-short-term financial ratios help investors to determine whether Vanguard Mutual Fund is cheap or expensive when compared to a particular measure, such as profits or enterprise value. In other words, they help investors to determine the cost of investment in Vanguard with respect to the benefits of owning Vanguard Ultra-short-term security.
| Equity Valuation Check real value of public entities based on technical and fundamental data | |
| Portfolio Volatility Check portfolio volatility and analyze historical return density to properly model market risk |