West Fraser Timber Stock Probability of Future Stock Price Finishing Under 128.91
| WFG Stock | CAD 138.40 0.80 0.57% |
West |
West Fraser Target Price Odds to finish below 128.91
The tendency of West Stock price to converge on an average value over time is a known aspect in finance that investors have used since the beginning of the stock market for forecasting. However, many studies suggest that some traded equity instruments are consistently mispriced before traders' demand and supply correct the spread. One possible conclusion to this anomaly is that these stocks have additional risk, for which investors demand compensation in the form of extra returns.
| Current Price | Horizon | Target Price | Odds to drop to C$ 128.91 or more in 90 days |
| 138.40 | 90 days | 128.91 | about 52.87 |
Based on a normal probability distribution, the odds of West Fraser to drop to C$ 128.91 or more in 90 days from now is about 52.87 (This West Fraser Timber probability density function shows the probability of West Stock to fall within a particular range of prices over 90 days) . Probability of West Fraser Timber price to stay between C$ 128.91 and its current price of C$138.4 at the end of the 90-day period is about 41.68 .
Assuming the 90 days trading horizon West Fraser has a beta of 0.29. This entails as returns on the market go up, West Fraser average returns are expected to increase less than the benchmark. However, during the bear market, the loss on holding West Fraser Timber will be expected to be much smaller as well. Additionally West Fraser Timber has an alpha of 0.1747, implying that it can generate a 0.17 percent excess return over Dow Jones Industrial after adjusting for the inherited market risk (beta). West Fraser Price Density |
| Price |
Predictive Modules for West Fraser
There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as West Fraser Timber. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.West Fraser Risk Indicators
For the most part, the last 10-20 years have been a very volatile time for the stock market. West Fraser is not an exception. The market had few large corrections towards the West Fraser's value, including both sudden drops in prices as well as massive rallies. These swings have made and broken many portfolios. An investor can limit the violent swings in their portfolio by implementing a hedging strategy designed to limit downside losses. If you hold West Fraser Timber, one way to have your portfolio be protected is to always look up for changing volatility and market elasticity of West Fraser within the framework of very fundamental risk indicators.α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.17 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | 0.29 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 6.13 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.05 |
West Fraser Alerts and Suggestions
In today's market, stock alerts give investors the competitive edge they need to time the market and increase returns. Checking the ongoing alerts of West Fraser for significant developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Suggestions and notifications for West Fraser Timber can help investors quickly react to important events or material changes in technical or fundamental conditions and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.| The company reported the revenue of 6.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (167 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.56 B. | |
| About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Smead Capital Management Inc. Raises Stake in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. - MarketBeat |
West Fraser Price Density Drivers
Market volatility will typically increase when nervous long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the market lower. The future price of West Stock often depends not only on the future outlook of the current and potential West Fraser's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. West Fraser's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
| Common Stock Shares Outstanding | 83.2 M | |
| Cash And Short Term Investments | 900 M |
West Fraser Technical Analysis
West Fraser's future price can be derived by breaking down and analyzing its technical indicators over time. West Stock technical analysis helps investors analyze different prices and returns patterns as well as diagnose historical swings to determine the real value of West Fraser Timber. In general, you should focus on analyzing West Stock price patterns and their correlations with different microeconomic environments and drivers.
West Fraser Predictive Forecast Models
West Fraser's time-series forecasting models is one of many West Fraser's stock analysis techniques aimed to predict future share value based on previously observed values. Time-series forecasting models are widely used for non-stationary data. Non-stationary data are called the data whose statistical properties, e.g., the mean and standard deviation, are not constant over time, but instead, these metrics vary over time. This non-stationary West Fraser's historical data is usually called time series. Some empirical experimentation suggests that the statistical forecasting models outperform the models based exclusively on fundamental analysis to predict the direction of the stock market movement and maximize returns from investment trading.
Things to note about West Fraser Timber
Checking the ongoing alerts about West Fraser for important developments is a great way to find new opportunities for your next move. Our stock alerts and notifications screener for West Fraser Timber help investors to be notified of important events, changes in technical or fundamental conditions, and significant headlines that can affect investment decisions.
| The company reported the revenue of 6.45 B. Net Loss for the year was (167 M) with profit before overhead, payroll, taxes, and interest of 4.56 B. | |
| About 34.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders | |
| Latest headline from news.google.com: Smead Capital Management Inc. Raises Stake in West Fraser Timber Co. Ltd. - MarketBeat |
Check out West Fraser Backtesting, West Fraser Valuation, West Fraser Correlation, West Fraser Hype Analysis, West Fraser Volatility, West Fraser History as well as West Fraser Performance. You can also try the Portfolio Optimization module to compute new portfolio that will generate highest expected return given your specified tolerance for risk.