West Fraser Stock Forecast - Polynomial Regression

WFG Stock  CAD 99.08  0.27  0.27%   
West Stock outlook is based on your current time horizon.
The value of RSI of West Fraser's stock price is about 68. This entails that the stock is rather overbought by investors as of today. The main point of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is to track how fast people are buying or selling West, making its price go up or down.

Momentum 68

 Buy Stretched

 
Oversold
 
Overbought
The successful prediction of West Fraser's future price could yield a significant profit. We analyze noise-free headlines and recent hype associated with West Fraser Timber, which may create opportunities for some arbitrage if properly timed.
Using West Fraser hype-based prediction, you can estimate the value of West Fraser Timber from the perspective of West Fraser response to recently generated media hype and the effects of current headlines on its competitors.
The Polynomial Regression forecasted value of West Fraser Timber on the next trading day is expected to be 103.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71 and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.10.

West Fraser after-hype prediction price

    
  CAD 99.08  
There is no one specific way to measure market sentiment using hype analysis or a similar predictive technique. This prediction method should be used in combination with more fundamental and traditional techniques such as stock price forecasting, technical analysis, analysts consensus, earnings estimates, and various momentum models.
  
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of West Fraser to cross-verify your projections.

West Fraser Additional Predictive Modules

Most predictive techniques to examine West price help traders to determine how to time the market. We provide a combination of tools to recognize potential entry and exit points for West using various technical indicators. When you analyze West charts, please remember that the event formation may indicate an entry point for a short seller, and look at other indicators across different periods to confirm that a breakdown or reversion is likely to occur.
West Fraser polinomial regression implements a single variable polynomial regression model using the daily prices as the independent variable. The coefficients of the regression for West Fraser Timber as well as the accuracy indicators are determined from the period prices.

West Fraser Polynomial Regression Price Forecast For the 28th of January

Given 90 days horizon, the Polynomial Regression forecasted value of West Fraser Timber on the next trading day is expected to be 103.58 with a mean absolute deviation of 1.71, mean absolute percentage error of 4.00, and the sum of the absolute errors of 106.10.
Please note that although there have been many attempts to predict West Stock prices using its time series forecasting, we generally do not recommend using it to place bets in the real market. The most commonly used models for forecasting predictions are the autoregressive models, which specify that West Fraser's next future price depends linearly on its previous prices and some stochastic term (i.e., imperfectly predictable multiplier).

West Fraser Stock Forecast Pattern

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West Fraser Forecasted Value

In the context of forecasting West Fraser's Stock value on the next trading day, we examine the predictive performance of the model to find good statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios. West Fraser's downside and upside margins for the forecasting period are 101.74 and 105.41, respectively. We have considered West Fraser's daily market price to evaluate the above model's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that traditional linear or nonlinear forecasting models outperform artificial intelligence and frequency domain models to provide accurate forecasts consistently.
Market Value
99.08
101.74
Downside
103.58
Expected Value
105.41
Upside

Model Predictive Factors

The below table displays some essential indicators generated by the model showing the Polynomial Regression forecasting method's relative quality and the estimations of the prediction error of West Fraser stock data series using in forecasting. Note that when a statistical model is used to represent West Fraser stock, the representation will rarely be exact; so some information will be lost using the model to explain the process. AIC estimates the relative amount of information lost by a given model: the less information a model loses, the higher its quality.
AICAkaike Information Criteria121.3357
BiasArithmetic mean of the errors None
MADMean absolute deviation1.7112
MAPEMean absolute percentage error0.0198
SAESum of the absolute errors106.0975
A single variable polynomial regression model attempts to put a curve through the West Fraser historical price points. Mathematically, assuming the independent variable is X and the dependent variable is Y, this line can be indicated as: Y = a0 + a1*X + a2*X2 + a3*X3 + ... + am*Xm

Predictive Modules for West Fraser

There are currently many different techniques concerning forecasting the market as a whole, as well as predicting future values of individual securities such as West Fraser Timber. Regardless of method or technology, however, to accurately forecast the stock market is more a matter of luck rather than a particular technique. Nevertheless, trying to predict the stock market accurately is still an essential part of the overall investment decision process. Using different forecasting techniques and comparing the results might improve your chances of accuracy even though unexpected events may often change the market sentiment and impact your forecasting results.
Hype
Prediction
LowEstimatedHigh
97.1699.08101.00
Details
Intrinsic
Valuation
LowRealHigh
92.6294.54108.99
Details
Bollinger
Band Projection (param)
LowMiddleHigh
77.3390.06102.79
Details

West Fraser After-Hype Price Density Analysis

As far as predicting the price of West Fraser at your current risk attitude, this probability distribution graph shows the chance that the prediction will fall between or within a specific range. We use this chart to confirm that your returns on investing in West Fraser or, for that matter, your successful expectations of its future price, cannot be replicated consistently. Please note, a large amount of money has been lost over the years by many investors who confused the symmetrical distributions of Stock prices, such as prices of West Fraser, with the unreliable approximations that try to describe financial returns.
   Next price density   
       Expected price to next headline  

West Fraser Estimiated After-Hype Price Volatility

In the context of predicting West Fraser's stock value on the day after the next significant headline, we show statistically significant boundaries of downside and upside scenarios based on West Fraser's historical news coverage. West Fraser's after-hype downside and upside margins for the prediction period are 97.16 and 101.00, respectively. We have considered West Fraser's daily market price in relation to the headlines to evaluate this method's predictive performance. Remember, however, there is no scientific proof or empirical evidence that news-based prediction models outperform traditional linear, nonlinear models or artificial intelligence models to provide accurate predictions consistently.
Current Value
99.08
99.08
After-hype Price
101.00
Upside
West Fraser is very steady at this time. Analysis and calculation of next after-hype price of West Fraser Timber is based on 3 months time horizon.

West Fraser Stock Price Outlook Analysis

Have you ever been surprised when a price of a Company such as West Fraser is soaring high without any particular reason? This is usually happening because many institutional investors are aggressively trading West Fraser backward and forwards among themselves. Have you ever observed a lot of a particular company's price movement is driven by press releases or news about the company that has nothing to do with actual earnings? Usually, hype to individual companies acts as price momentum. If not enough favorable publicity is forthcoming, the Stock price eventually runs out of speed. So, the rule of thumb here is that as long as this news hype has nothing to do with immediate earnings, you should pay more attention to it. If you see this tendency with West Fraser, there might be something going there, and it might present an excellent short sale opportunity.
Expected ReturnPeriod VolatilityHype ElasticityRelated ElasticityNews DensityRelated DensityExpected Hype
  0.25 
1.83
 0.00  
  0.34 
0 Events / Month
1 Events / Month
Any time
Latest traded priceExpected after-news pricePotential return on next major newsAverage after-hype volatility
99.08
99.08
0.00 
0.00  
Notes

West Fraser Hype Timeline

West Fraser Timber is at this time traded for 99.08on Toronto Exchange of Canada. The entity stock is not elastic to its hype. The average elasticity to hype of competition is -0.34. West is forecasted not to react to the next headline, with the price staying at about the same level, and average media hype impact volatility is insignificant. The immediate return on the next news is forecasted to be very small, whereas the daily expected return is at this time at 0.25%. %. The volatility of related hype on West Fraser is about 135.16%, with the expected price after the next announcement by competition of 98.74. About 32.0% of the company outstanding shares are owned by insiders. The company has Price to Book (P/B) ratio of 0.85. Historically many companies with similar price-to-book (P/B) ratio do better than the market in the long run. West Fraser Timber recorded a loss per share of 4.55. The entity last dividend was issued on the 29th of December 2025. The firm had 2:1 split on the 14th of January 2014. Assuming the 90 days trading horizon the next forecasted press release will be any time.
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of West Fraser to cross-verify your projections.

West Fraser Related Hype Analysis

Having access to credible news sources related to West Fraser's direct competition is more important than ever and may enhance your ability to predict West Fraser's future price movements. Getting to know how West Fraser's peers react to changing market sentiment, related social signals, and mainstream news is a great way to find investing opportunities and time the market. The summary table below summarizes the essential lagging indicators that can help you analyze how West Fraser may potentially react to the hype associated with one of its peers.

Other Forecasting Options for West Fraser

For every potential investor in West, whether a beginner or expert, West Fraser's price movement is the inherent factor that sparks whether it is viable to invest in it or hold it better. West Stock price charts are filled with many 'noises.' These noises can hugely alter the decision one can make regarding investing in West. Basic forecasting techniques help filter out the noise by identifying West Fraser's price trends.

West Fraser Related Equities

One of the popular trading techniques among algorithmic traders is to use market-neutral strategies where every trade hedges away some risk. Because there are two separate transactions required, even if one position performs unexpectedly, the other equity can make up some of the losses. Below are some of the equities that can be combined with West Fraser stock to make a market-neutral strategy. Peer analysis of West Fraser could also be used in its relative valuation, which is a method of valuing West Fraser by comparing valuation metrics with similar companies.
 Risk & Return  Correlation

West Fraser Market Strength Events

Market strength indicators help investors to evaluate how West Fraser stock reacts to ongoing and evolving market conditions. The investors can use it to make informed decisions about market timing, and determine when trading West Fraser shares will generate the highest return on investment. By undertsting and applying West Fraser stock market strength indicators, traders can identify West Fraser Timber entry and exit signals to maximize returns.

West Fraser Risk Indicators

The analysis of West Fraser's basic risk indicators is one of the essential steps in accurately forecasting its future price. The process involves identifying the amount of risk involved in West Fraser's investment and either accepting that risk or mitigating it. Along with some essential techniques for forecasting west stock prices, we also provide a set of basic risk indicators that can assist in the individual investment decision or help in hedging the risk of your existing portfolios.
Please note, the risk measures we provide can be used independently or collectively to perform a risk assessment. When comparing two potential investments, we recommend comparing similar equities with homogenous growth potential and valuation from related markets to determine which investment holds the most risk.

Story Coverage note for West Fraser

The number of cover stories for West Fraser depends on current market conditions and West Fraser's risk-adjusted performance over time. The coverage that generates the most noise at a given time depends on the prevailing investment theme that West Fraser is classified under. However, while its typical story may have numerous social followers, the rapid visibility can also attract short-sellers, who usually are skeptical about West Fraser's long-term prospects. So, having above-average coverage will typically attract above-average short interest, leading to significant price volatility.

West Fraser Short Properties

West Fraser's future price predictability will typically decrease when West Fraser's long traders begin to feel the short-sellers pressure to drive the price lower. The predictive aspect of West Fraser Timber often depends not only on the future outlook of the potential West Fraser's investors but also on the ongoing dynamics between investors with different trading styles. Because the market risk indicators may have small false signals, it is better to identify suitable times to hedge a portfolio using different long/short signals. West Fraser's indicators that are reflective of the short sentiment are summarized in the table below.
Common Stock Shares Outstanding81.1 M
Cash And Short Term Investments640.6 M
When determining whether West Fraser Timber is a strong investment it is important to analyze West Fraser's competitive position within its industry, examining market share, product or service uniqueness, and competitive advantages. Beyond financials and market position, potential investors should also consider broader economic conditions, industry trends, and any regulatory or geopolitical factors that may impact West Fraser's future performance. For an informed investment choice regarding West Stock, refer to the following important reports:
Check out Historical Fundamental Analysis of West Fraser to cross-verify your projections.
You can also try the FinTech Suite module to use AI to screen and filter profitable investment opportunities.
Please note, there is a significant difference between West Fraser's value and its price as these two are different measures arrived at by different means. Investors typically determine if West Fraser is a good investment by looking at such factors as earnings, sales, fundamental and technical indicators, competition as well as analyst projections. However, West Fraser's price is the amount at which it trades on the open market and represents the number that a seller and buyer find agreeable to each party.