Alliance Resource Partners Stock Market Outlook
| ARLP Stock | USD 24.53 -0.32 -1.29% |
Earnings surprises, macro shifts, and narrative changes can each leave a measurable footprint in the score, which is why sentiment is treated as context rather than proof on its own. About 53% of recent sentiment around Alliance Resource has been mildly defensive over the recent sample. Taken on its own, that leaves Current sentiment reading for Alliance Resource Partners close to neutral at this time.
Investor Comfort Level
PanicConfidence
47 · Impartial
Elasticity to Hype and News Sentiment
At 65%, Alliance Resource Partners news tone is moderately positive, providing a perception layer that can precede fundamental repricing. Cross-checking that reading with earnings momentum and price action helps confirm whether the narrative is running ahead of or behind the business.
Given a 90-day horizon, with a highly speculative risk level, the model output for Alliance Resource Partners is 'Strong Sell'. The recommendation model incorporates Alliance Resource's available fundamental, technical, and predictive indicators.
Alliance |
Run Alliance Resource Outlook Model
This Alliance module delivers a quantitative summary that supplements analyst views on Alliance Resource Partners. Macroaxis has no ownership or residual interests in Alliance Resource Partners or other analyzed instruments. The Alliance Resource's output adapts to changes in volatility, momentum, and fundamental signals. A balanced approach combines this algorithmic output with broader market research.
How This Model Works
The recommendation output for Alliance Resource is a model-based view that converts the selected horizon and risk profile into a standardized reading of the current evidence.
- Inputs - valuation signals, price behavior, volatility, liquidity, sentiment, and analyst coverage when available
- Current setup - Three Months with a risk setting described as I love taking a lot of risk
- Limits - the model does not account for taxes, outside holdings, concentration constraints, or investor-specific mandates
Use the output as structured decision support and pair it with your own research, portfolio context, and any professional advice you rely on.
Time Horizon
Risk Tolerance
Strong Sell
Market Performance | Mild | Details | |
Volatility | Very Low | Details | |
Current Valuation | Below Model Estimate | Details | |
Odds Of Distress | Low | Details | |
Economic Sensitivity | Shows low sensitivity to market movements | Details | |
Investor Sentiment | Impartial | Details | |
Analyst Consensus | Strong Buy | Details | |
Financial Strenth (F Score) | Strong | Details | |
Financial Leverage | Not Rated | Details | |
Reporting Quality (M-Score) | Unlikely Manipulator | Details |
Alliance Resource's current outlook reflects a cautious setup, where recent market performance has undercut momentum, while contained volatility and intact fundamental quality provide partial offset. The model's 'Strong Sell' signal reflects persistent headwinds that outweigh the offsetting factors in the model. Key risk-adjusted readings for Alliance Resource include Mean Deviation of 1.2, Semi Deviation of 1.33, and Standard Deviation of 1.6, which weigh on the current risk-reward outlook.The model output for Alliance Resource integrates risk-adjusted performance, valuation signals, and the current analyst and expert consensus into a single quantitative reading. For additional context on this mid-cap stock in the Energy sector, examine the full set of Alliance Resource reported fundamentals, including debt to equity ttm, earnings per share, and the relationship between the ebitda ttm and market capitalization ttm. Alliance Resource has a price to earnings ttm of 7.18 X. Its market performance and bankruptcy risk for the current cycle warrant close attention.
Recent Events and Market Context
The events below reflect recent headlines associated with Alliance Resource. Not all items directly affect the outlook โ they are included to show the broader information environment that can shape sentiment and trading behavior.
Returns Distribution Density
This distribution maps every daily return Alliance Resource has posted. Most days cluster near the average return, and the further from the mean, the rarer those moves become. Value At Risk and Upside Potential sit at opposite ends, showing the worst and best likely outcomes. Value At Risk and Upside Potential serve as the key markers for downside and upside.
| Mean Return | 0.10 | Value At Risk | -2.55 | Potential Upside | 3.04 | Standard Deviation | 1.60 |
Return Density |
| Distribution |
Understanding Alliance Resource's risk starts with seeing how often large price swings happen. The historical return chart puts hard numbers on that question. This enables comparison of risk-return profiles with a clear picture of the downside. The chart frames the trade-offs that matter most in the context of analysis of Alliance Resource exposure.
Top Institutional Investors
Annual revenue is about 2.19 billion. How Alliance Resource Partners's institutional base reacts to earnings changes can move the stock in the short term. The business currently sits in the Energy sector and the Thermal Coal industry. Short interest and volume patterns inform the ownership analysis given the holder split.
| Shares | We Are One Seven, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 276.3 K | Adams Asset Advisors Llc | 2026-03-31 | 255.4 K | Mercer Global Advisors Inc. | 2025-12-31 | 254.2 K | Bienville Capital Management, Llc | 2025-12-31 | 231 K | Exchange Traded Concepts, Llc | 2026-03-31 | 218.6 K | Keybank National Association | 2026-03-31 | 200 K | Barclays Plc | 2025-12-31 | 195.9 K | Swank Energy Income Advisors, Lp | 2026-03-31 | 191 K | First Trust Advisors L.p. | 2025-12-31 | 187.1 K | Morgan Stanley - Brokerage Accounts | 2025-12-31 | 3.4 M | Progeny 3, Inc. | 2025-12-31 | 3.3 M |
Key Drivers of Volatility and Market Exposure
Alliance Resource combines broad market sensitivity with company or sector-specific developments. Diversification may lower asset-specific risk, but systematic volatility remains inherent. Alliance Resource Partners reported a Downside Deviation of 1.45, a Mean Deviation of 1.20, and a Semi Deviation of 1.33.
α | Alpha over Dow Jones | 0.09 | |
β | Beta against Dow Jones | -0.3765 | |
σ | Overall volatility | 1.62 | |
Ir | Information ratio | 0.06 |
Fundamentals Vs Peers
Alliance Resource's valuation multiples, profitability ratios, and leverage metrics are benchmarked below against comparable stocks. When Alliance Resource outperforms peers on profitability or returns while trading at a discount, the gap warrants investigation. Alliance Resource's capital efficiency, margin trajectory, and leverage profile are each compared to the peer median. Alliance Resource's financial profile relative to comparable stocks frames the discussion of whether current pricing is justified.
| Better Than Average | Worse Than Average | Compare Alliance Resource to competition |
Note: Acquisition by Thomas Wynne of 34080 shares of Alliance Resource subject to Rule 16 b-3 [view details]
Market Momentum
RSI at 41 (mildly bearish) and beta of -0.3765 together frame Alliance Resource Partners momentum profile - showing how the stock is positioned relative to its own trend and the broader market. Timing discipline improves when these strength signals are cross-checked with earnings momentum and volume confirmation.
Current Target Price Consensus
We determine Alliance's target price by averaging all analyst estimates into a single consensus value. No single metric captures analyst accuracy; sophisticated attribution analysis remains the primary evaluation method. The Alliance Resource projections presented below are informative when considered alongside other forecasting methods. The resulting multi-method view of Alliance Resource provides a stronger foundation for investment analysis.
| 2 | Strong Buy |
Rating updates for Alliance typically occur on a quarterly cycle. The target price supports comparison of the stock's current trading level to what analysts believe Alliance Resource Partners is worth. Analysts reach conclusions through examination of Alliance Resource's public filings and direct management engagement. Each Alliance rating cycle incorporates fresh data from Alliance Resource's most recent reporting period.
Exposure ValuationAlliance Resource Target Price Projection
Investors tracking Alliance Resource will note a current price of 24.53 and an average analyst target of 30.33. The market price tells investors what Alliance Resource Partners trades for right now; the target indicates what analysts believe the stock is worth. When these two measures diverge substantially, investor interest in acting on the difference increases. Combining this price-target analysis with other metrics strengthens the aggregate assessment of Alliance Resource Partners.Current Price
Alliance Resource Market Quote on 11th of May 2026
Target Price
Analyst Consensus On Alliance Resource Target Price
Alliance Resource Analyst Ratings
Analyst coverage on Alliance Resource spans 2 analysts with a Strong Buy consensus. 2 lean positive while 0 lean negative on Alliance Resource's stock. 2 rate it optimistically, reinforcing the mostly bullish tilt. Historical shifts in these ratings are charted below.Analyst Consensus Breakdown
Average Consensus Estimates
Recommendation Framework, Assumptions & Editorial Oversight
The model output for Alliance Resource reflects the current horizon and risk settings, refreshes as underlying data changes, and is intended to organize evidence rather than replace investor judgment. Current model inputs for Alliance Resource include P/E of 7.18, ROE of 13.97%. External analyst coverage is currently summarized as Strong Buy across 2 analysts, but it is treated here as a secondary reference input rather than a stand-alone recommendation. Published target-price assumptions may also be reviewed when available, but they can change quickly as analyst models are revised. 
Alliance Resource Partners data is compiled from periodic company reporting and market reference feeds and standardized for comparability. The model combines valuation, price behavior, volatility, and sentiment into a standardized quantitative view.
Editorial Review & Methodology Oversight
Role: Member of Macroaxis Editorial Board
Finance background: Gabriel is a young entrepreneur and writes predominantly on the business, technology, and finance sector. He likes to analyze different equity instruments across a wide range of industries focusing primarily on consumer products and evolving technologies.
Oversight scope: Reviews recommendation-framework framing, source assumptions, and disclosure language.